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Sportsbooks Open Giants vs 49ers Total at 43.5

by | Nov 6, 2018 | nfl

New York Giants (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, November 12, 8:15 PM EST
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Ca.
TV: ESPN
By Keith Allen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +3/ SF -3
Over/Under Total: 43½

Play the Giants and Over

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises – the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers - will meet in the Bay to close out week 10. The game will not be confused with one of the Bill Walsh vs Bill Parcells era, but bettors still can profit from jumping on the right sides of this contest, which is the Giants and the Over. Here are 3 reasons.

The Giants will Show Pride

The Giants have been a tough watch this year, with every week seeming to be worse than the previous one. The Giants have never been able to shift out of first gear, and the only relevant question now appears to be who will start behind center in 2019. Some of the leading sportsbooks will even have odds on it before the season is over and Manning’s body is still warm. Eli Manning has not done anything to justify the Giants brass decision to believe the veteran signal caller had one more super bowl run in the tank, and now the team is playing out the final 8 games with Eli as a lame duck. The offensive line has been an embarrassment and Coach Pat Shurmur is showing his frustrations. Saquon Barkley has been as good as advertised and Odell Beckam Jr. remains a threat, but they are getting little help. The Giants bye could not have come at a better time.

I look for the Giants to come out of the bye and show some pride by playing a strong game. The Giants have spent the bye week listening to the New York pundits talk about how bad they are, and how they are the worst team in the league. The G-Men were booed by the home fans that stuck around in their week 7 and 8 games against the Falcons and Redskins, and never had a realistic chance to win either of those games. Manning and the offensive line are the primary problems that have to be improved. I expect the line to show some improvement after the bye and Manning to get the ball out quicker when needed. If the line shows some marginal improvement, Manning would get more comfortable and improve in turn. The Giants defense has been middle of the pack, ranking 18th in points allowed and 22nd in yards per play. If the offense can come out and show some life, the defense should be able to keep New York in the game.

Nick Mullens Bubble Will Burst

The 49ers have been equally hard to watch in 2018, especially since Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in week 3 and hopes of the 49ers renaissance were put on hold for another year. San Francisco was going down the same path as the Giants until undrafted rookie Nick Mullens lit a fire in last week’s beat down of the cross-town rival Raiders. Mullens was a practice squad member last year after breaking all of the passing records at Southern Miss. He got his chance when C.J. Beathard injured his wrist and couldn’t start the week 9 game, and now will get a chance to repeat his performance against New York. Mullen threw for 3 touchdowns and 262 yards in week 9 and could not have written a better script for his introduction to the NFL.

Mullens and the 49ers have spent the last 10 days listening about how good they were against the Raiders. Unfortunately, bad teams that look like super bowl winners on National TV rarely repeat that performance the next game, and the Raider defense is easily the worst in the league. After the Niners allowed 31 sacks through the first 7 games of the season, Oakland never even put pressure on Mullen. Even though the Giants have the second fewest sacks in the league to Oakland, they hurry the opposing QB twice as often as the Raiders, and New York will scheme some blitzes to make Mullens uncomfortable. Look for Mullens and the 49ers to have some limited success, but don’t look for a performance like they put up against the Raiders.

A Case to Play Over

My favorite play in this contest would be to play Over the 43½ total and it’s all about the 49ers. 5 of their 7 games since Garoppolo have been over 43, with the only 2 staying under being the game against the Raiders where Oakland only scored 3, and the previous game against the Cardinals. The recency of the previous 2 lower scores has kept this total in the low 40s. Kyle Shanahan’s team will play fast, giving more scoring chances for both teams. Half of the Giants games have gone over 43, and New York has 2 guys that can score on any play in Barkley and Beckam Jr. The 49ers had 7 sacks against the Raiders, but before that they only had 17 in their first 8 games. The Raiders had multiple injuries during the game, so there is no reason to jump to a conclusion that SF has developed a pass rush. Eli should have time to throw, and should be able to put points on the board. The Over is 27-19 in games with teams in their game off of the bye, and is a solid play in this one.
Play the Giants and Over on Monday Night Football in week 10.

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