Detroit Lions (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date and Time: Sunday October 13, 2013 1pm EST
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland OH
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Det +1/CLE -1
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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If you would have told me at the beginning of the year, The Browns will start Brandon Weeden, go to Brian Hoyer, trade away Trent Richardson in mid/late September, and go back to Weeden, I would have told you the Brownsat this point in the season—would be 0-5! Truth is: The Browns have been absolutely solid gold as a team! With all the junk surrounding this organization and the rumors and speculation concerning the future of Ravens West, this 2013 Browns team could/should be 4-1 (in the least) and possibly 5-0! The Lions? The Lions are receiving the bounty of a tough schedule coming off a 4-12 season last year (sarcasm). The Lionsas usualcant get out of their own way and most think the Lions demise is partially Eminems (Marshall Mathers) fault for his support (The Cubs Curse of the goat whammy)! MegaTron is a MegaBust, Reggie Bush—-the spark in the Lions offense—-is banged up but will play, Stafford is stuck dropping back and heaving the rock and needs to be more creative working around the rush and not in the pocket, and Suh is just outta his mind! The Lions are a disappointment because they have tons of talent and play with purpose hauling along a very big motor. Lets take a look inside the stats to pick a winner.
Who among us thought Brian Hoyer could lead a cub scout sleep-over let alone a professional football team? The Browns are looking for 4 in a row against the Lions. The Browns are 26th in the league in passing yards, 25th in rushing, and 21st in scoring. The Browns on defense are 19th in team defense which leads us to believe that the Browns look and play like a 8-8 or 7-9 ballclub.
The Lions have put up mediocre NFL numbers in many categories. Detroit stands 16th in Team defense and sitting precisely in the middle of the league in this category. On Offense, the Lions are 26th in rushing, sit 10th in passing and 15th in Red Zone scoring percentage (Cleveland is 10th). The Lions are 28th in return yardage (Browns 18th), 20th in field goals (Browns 24th) and stand 17th in average Points per Play (Cle. Is 15th). Other than Red Zone scoring percentage and team passing, these 2 teams are statistically reflections of each otheror are they?
Looking deeper into the numbers shows a few reasons we might favor one team over another. Detroit is standing tall at 5th in the NFL in Defensive TDs. Detroit sits 1 spot above Cleveland at number 12 in Average Scoring Margin. Turnovers are a monster roadblock towards success in the NFL! Detroit is 11th in the league in Turnovers while the Browns are 21st and much worse when factoring out Hoyer and factoring Weeden! In scoring, Detroit is 10th in the NFL while the Browns are an uncomfortable 21st. In the Red Zone (where ALL the money is made!), Detroit is 7th in Red Zone Touchdowns while the Browns languish in 20th position. Lets look at the key factor in this gameother than Home Field advantageto pick a winner!
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Brandon Weeden has 2 TDs and 3 interception in 3 games as a starter with the Browns. Look at this amazing statistic: Weeden has been sacked 16 times in 3 freakin games! Weeden is not mobile, has lost his confidence, and will not get rid of the ball putting ANY NFL offense at risk of Operation Shutdown. The Lions have a trump card called Defensive TDs per Game. The Lions are poised at 5th in the NFL in Defensive TDs per game. Out goes Hoyer, in comes Weeden, in come the Lions and Set the table Mary! Its feeding time on the banks of Lake Erie! To put Weedens sack numbers in perspective: Each time Weeden drops back to pass, there is a 12.7 percent probability that Weeden will fall the turfin a brown-ish heap—clutching the ball tightly in a death grip! But, before we go any further, remember the Lions are 2nd in the NFL in Interceptions with 8! The Lions sack total is near the bottom with 10, but this low figure might be an effect of QBs being pressured to get rid of the ballaccounting for the Lions high Interception number. Weeden will not get rid of the ballhe eats it like Cocoa Puffs! This week the Lions sack total gets a huge jolt of electricity.
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Detroit Lions +1.