Detroit vs. Jacksonville Week 6 Pick ATS

by | Oct 13, 2020 | nfl

Detroit Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4, 2-3), 10/18/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 18

Where: TIAA Bank Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: Lions -3.5/Jaguars +3.5 (Bovada - 50% Bonus up to $250 FREE + Rebates win, lose or draw! Our favorite live betting platform!)

Moneyline: Lions -185/+150

Over/Under: 54

NFL big cats do battle when the Lions and Jaguars meet for an inter-conference match-up Sunday afternoon down in J-Ville. Detroit continues to muddle its way through the Matt Patricia regime, while the Jags, following a promising start to this season, hope to halt a four-game losing skid. The Lions are lined as a road favorite for this game, a role they don’t often play. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 6 NFL betting odds opened the Lions as three-point road favorites for this game, with an over/under of right around 52.5. Early betting action then added a hook to that spread and bumped that total to 54.

Lions vs. Jaguars Set-Up

Detroit is 1-3 on the season, after losing at home to New Orleans two weeks ago 35-29. The Lions then took their bye last week.

Detroit jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Saints two weeks ago, driving 77 yards to a touchdown on its first possession, then turning a takeaway into another TD a minute later. But the Lions then gave up a 35-0 New Orleans run, spanning the halves, to fell behind by three scores. In typical Detroit fashion, the Lions scored twice to get back within six points with just under four minutes to go but couldn’t get the ball back, allowing New Orleans to run the clock dry from there.

Detroit also came up short ATS as a three-point home dog.

On the day, the Lions got out-gained by the Saints 392-281, out-rushed 164-90, and lost time of possession by a 37:23 split. So Detroit has been out-gained in three of its four games this season and out-rushed in all four.

The Lions opened their season by blowing a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead and losing to Chicago 27-23. Detroit then gave away an early 11-point lead and lost to Green Bay 42-21. The Lions then pulled an upset, beating the Cardinals in Arizona 26-23.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 1-4 on the season after falling at Houston last week 30-14. The Jaguars gave up an early Texans field goal, then drove their first possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown and a 7-3 lead. Unfortunately, that lead only lasted about two minutes, and Jacksonville trailed 13-7 at the half. The Jags then gave up a quick Houston touchdown out of the locker room, immediately drove 75 yards to another TD to get back within 20-14 but came up empty from there, as the Texans tacked on the last 10 points of the game.

Jacksonville also came up empty ATS as a 6.5-point underdog.

On the day, the Jags got out-gained 486-364 and out-rushed 129-75. So Jacksonville has been out-gained and out-rushed in three of its five games this season.

The Jaguars had chances against Houston but missed two field goals, including a 24-yarder, and botched a 4th-and-1 from the Texans’ 8-yard line when a touchdown would have given them the lead in the third quarter.

Jacksonville kickers – they’ve had four of them this season – are 7/10 on field goals and 10/12 on extra points.

The Jags opened this season promisingly enough, beating Indianapolis 27-20. Jacksonville then lost at Tennessee 33-30 but covered as a seven-point dog. The Jags then lost to Miami 31-13 and at Cincinnati 33-25. So they’re trending in the wrong direction at the moment.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 26-19 Lions victory in Detroit.

Bengals vs. Colts Pick

NFL Betting Trends

  • Detroit is 10-25-1 SU, 16-20 in two-plus seasons under Coach Patricia.
  • Jacksonville is 22-31 SU, 23-28-2 ATS in three-plus seasons under Coach Marrone.
  • Favorites are 51-24 SU but only 35-39 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home teams are only 39-36 SU, 33-41 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home dogs are 6-18 SU, 10-12 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 3-1 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 57 total points against an average over/under of 50.
  • Overs are 3-2 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 51 points against an average total of 49.
  • Overs are 42-33 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Detroit’s got that snake-bit look about them, and no lead is safe. And how could one trust the Lions on the road? Meanwhile, Jacksonville beat the Colts, who are supposed to be pretty good, and gave the Titans, who are 3-0, a tough game. Plus, we like Minshew. We’ll take the Jags and the points for our free NFL pick here. Bet this game and ALL your college football/NFL picks at -105 reduced odds (instead of the -110 or more your book is socking you!) at BetAnySports!