Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Odds & Predictions 10/10/21

by | Oct 6, 2021 | nfl

Miami Dolphins (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 1PM EDT

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida

TV: CBS

Point Spread: MIA +10/TB -10 (Betanysports - Stop wasting your money! STOP betting games at -110 odds! Start risking only -105 at BAS! You’ll be so glad you switched!)

Over/Under Total: 48

The Miami Dolphins come to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday for an All-Florida showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady and the Bucs were able to nip the Patriots at the wire, 19-17, on Sunday. They now return home to take on a Miami squad that has stumbled on hard times at 1-3. On Sunday, they fell at home in a disheartening 27-17 loss to the Colts. Can the ‘Fins get it together, or will Tampa Bay flex their muscles? Let’s break it down and see who can get the cover on Sunday?

What to Expect from Tampa

Even though they beat the Pats on Sunday, it wasn’t the vintage Tampa performance. Belichick threw everything he had at Brady, and they got a good game from their own QB. Miami lacks some of that upside, playing Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. They have some defensive muscle, but it hasn’t really manifested the way they had hoped. This could be a spot where we see Tampa unveil a larger part of their offensive power. After losing to the Rams the previous week and then nipping the Pats at the wire in a subdued performance on offense, they’re perhaps due to show a little more on that front.

Tampa’s defense won’t be playing in one of their toughest matchups this week. The Miami offense wasn’t exactly knocking it out of the park with Tua in there, and it’s taken another step back with Jacoby Brissett, a capable QB, but not one who is going to get you a ton of production or get the ball downfield very often. With 62 points in 4 games, they’ve been struggling, and this could be a road spot where we see more of the same.

Issues for Miami

The Dolphins face a major firepower deficit in this game. When looking at the other sideline and their embarrassment of riches, Miami must really feel inadequate. At RB, we see Malcolm Brown getting a lot of the work for Miami. That’s unlikely to really pay off. They got Will Fuller back, but now he’s injured again. Myles Gaskin hasn’t really come through with a big game but should be used more in the backfield with Brown. And aerially, they have a QB who struggles vertically, with ball-catchers like Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal, along with tight ends which sometimes show up and oftentimes do not. Their offensive line has not been up to snuff, allowing a calvary of pass-rushers to get to their quarterback while doing a bad job in opening holes up for the running game.

It’s almost hard to envision how this team won ten games last season. The formula was a delicate one, and they haven’t been able to reproduce it in 2021—to flex a good defense, work resourcefully on offense, and control game tempo and pace. It’s just that the offense needs to do some of the heavy lifting, and getting that part of their team to be productive has been elusive. Whether the defense has sagged or is just getting hung out to dry is another matter, but suffice to say, it’s not nearly a good enough unit to uphold an offense that can’t get many things right.

It’s a disheartening situation for the Dolphins, but still a fixable one. A 1-3 start could be the beginning of the end for Miami this season, but there is still time to right the ship. This isn’t an easy spot to do it, but a win over the defending Super Bowl champions could put some wind in their sails, and they’ll be getting Tagovailoa soon, so maybe it’s premature to begin shoveling dirt on the Dolphins just yet. But optimism heading into this week is understandably faint.

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Good Spot to Take Tampa?

From a matchup standpoint, there’s a lot of ammo here. The Tampa defensive front should be able to trouble this Miami O-line and make life hard on Brissett. Not that Miami can’t manufacture any offensive success, but it looks to be an uphill battle. Conversely, this could be a spot where Brady looks to reignite the high-powered offense against a defense that has been losing its juice over the first handful of weeks in the season.

My one concern is a certain apathy can accompany successful teams, especially defending Super Bowl champ with a 44-year old quarterback. It’s not going to be a 17-week juggernaut on the loose. There’s going to be spots where they do just enough to win. In these out-of-conference games against down teams, you can see a Tampa team maybe mentally letting off the gas just enough to give credence to the other side of the bet. After two subdued showings on the Tampa offense in the past two games, maybe we see better here. But we just can’t be surprised when a team like that doesn’t showcase the full spectrum of their offensive potential for whatever reason in a given week.

Lay the Number

Again, there can be a real downside when expecting something from a Tampa Bay team that doesn’t need to do what you’re asking. A team like this isn’t going to be showing off every week. This isn’t some must-win situation. It’s just that after falling flat against the Rams and not hitting 20 points against New England, I suspect more offense this week. And facing a Miami offense that might struggle to hit the scoreboard with any regularity, I see Tampa gaining some second-half separation and getting the win and cover at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus 10 points. Bet your week 5 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!

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