Dolphins vs. Jets Pick 11/29/20

by | Nov 25, 2020 | nfl

Miami Dolphins (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (0-10, 3-7), 11/29/20

Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 29

Where: Met Life Stadium

TV: CBS

Point spread: Mia -7/NYJ +7

Money line: Dolphins -295/Jets +240

Over/Under: 44.5

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The Dolphins were hot, and a chic betting pick last week but may have been exposed as pretenders by a loss at Denver. Miami will try to resume its quest for a playoff spot when it meets the rival and winless Jets Sunday afternoon at the Meadowlands. The Dolphins played as road favorites last week and lost outright; now they’re favored on the road again. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 12 NFL betting odds opened Miami at -7 over the Jets, with an over/under of right around 46. Early betting action then dipped that total to 44.5.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami flew a five-game winning streak into Denver last week but laid an egg and lost 20-13. The Dolphins turned an early takeaway into a 7-0 lead but trailed 13-10 at the half. Miami then gave up the first seven points out of the locker room and couldn’t fully recover, going down to outright defeat as a four-point favorite.

Along the way, the Dolphins benched rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in favor of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who drove Miami last-gasp to the Broncos’ 15-yard line, then threw an interception to kill the rally. Tagovailoa will get the start again this week.

The Dolphins got out-gained by Denver 4459-223 and out-rushed 189-56. So Miami has been out-gained and out-rushed three times over its last four games.

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins beat San Diego 29-21 despite producing just 280 yards of total offense. Three weeks ago, Miami beat Arizona 34-31 with 312 yards. And just prior to that, the ‘Fins beat the Rams 28-17 with just 145 yards!

So after averaging 354 yards per game through six games with Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins are averaging just 240 YPG with Tagovailoa.

At 6-4 overall, Miami trails first-place Buffalo by one game in the AFC East and Cleveland by one game in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

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NY Jets Bewtting Preview

New York, meanwhile, joined the “0-10” club last week by losing to the Chargers 34-28. The Jets actually turned an early blocked punt into a 6-0 lead but, of course, missed the extra point. New York QB Joe Flacco then threw a pick-6, leading to a 24-6 halftime deficit. The Jets later trailed 31-13 and 34-19 but scored twice in the last four minutes to garner a back-door cover as 10-point dogs.

New York got out-gained by the Chargers 376-292 and lost time of possession by a 36:24 tilt.

On the bright side, the Jets drove three consecutive possessions 74, 75, and 75 yards to touchdowns in the second half and drove last-gasp, down by one score, to the San Diego 32-yard line before turning it over on downs.

Three weeks ago, New York led New England 27-17 in the fourth quarter, lost 30-27 but covered at +9. So the Jets, after struggling mightily to put points on the board most of this season, have scored 55 points over their last two games.

At 0-10, the Jets are just trying to avoid joining the 2008 Detroit Lions and the ’17 Cleveland Browns as the only members of the “0-16” club.

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Dolphins-Jets Recent History

Miami is 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS over the last six meetings with the Jets, including a 24-0 victory down in Florida six weeks ago. The Dolphins out-gained New York that day 302-263 and covered as 10-point favorites.

Also, that game played way under its total of 46.

NFL Betting Trends

Miami is 3-1 both SU and ATS with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter at QB.

Miami is 8-11 SU, 12-7 ATS with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter at QB.

Miami is 11-15 SU but 16-10 ATS under Coach Flores.

New York is 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS with Joe Flacco at QB.

New York is 7-19 SU, 10-16 ATS under Coach Gase.

Home teams are 85-75 SU, 78-81 ATS in the NFL this season.

Favorites are 104-55 SU but only 69-89 ATS in the NFL this season.

Home dogs are 19-39 SU, 32-24 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Unders are 6-4 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 47 total points against an average over/under of 48.

Totals are split 5-5 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 45 points against an average O/U of 45.

Overs are 84-74 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Miami won five in a row recently, but it was playing with fire, doing little offensively with Tagovailoa, and it caught up with them last week. Now it looks like they’re sticking with Tago this week when they probably should be starting Fitzpatrick. New York, meanwhile, is terrible, but it’s kept three of its last four games close, covering at +9.5, +9, and +10 along the way. We don’t often recommend betting on winless teams, but we’re taking the Jets and the points here. Did you know that you can bet on games live-in-progress? Find one of the best live wagering platforms and a HUGE wagering menu at BetOnline Sportsbook!

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