Falcons vs. Colts Prediction – Week 3 Analysis

by | Sep 19, 2019 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday - September 22nd - 1:00pm EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Point Spread: ATL +2 / IND -2 (Best Line at Intertops )
Over/Under Total: 47

This Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium, two teams sitting at 1-1 will face off when the Atlanta Falcons come to town to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Both clubs came into the season with very high hopes, and after two weeks, both teams sit at .500 and look to get the vital second win of the season under their belt. Indianapolis won in week two over the Tennessee Titans in a game that I thought Tennessee would waltz through while Atlanta also got their first win of 2019 in week two with a stunning and exciting 24-20 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Having the Falcons in the NFC and Colts in the AFC, these two franchises rarely meet up. Actually, these two have only faced off ten times since their first meeting way back in 1969, which was only Atlanta’s third year in the league. Over those ten contests, the Colts hold a commanding 8-2 series lead with the most recent game being a 24-21 Colts win back in November of 2015. Of course, history means nothing in these games, but it is fair to note that not only have the Colts owned the Falcons in this series, but the Falcons most recent win was one in which Peyton Manning was out due to injury, and the Colts had to go with Curtis Painter in 2011. Again, this is a new year and new teams. With that said, the Colts open as a two-point home favorite over the Falcons with the total points being set at 47 combined.

As of late Tuesday night, the betting public appeared to like Atlanta on the road this Sunday. 56% of the action was on the Falcons to cover the points on the road over the Colts. As for the total points, 54% like this game to stay under the 47 posted while 46% thinks it goes over. Both teams are coming off straight up wins and both also covered this past Sunday in their victories. Atlanta sits at 1-1 ATS in 2019 while the Colts covered one and pushed one for a 1-0-1 ATS record so far in the first two weeks.

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I am going ahead and saying this now; the Falcons WILL COVER and win on Sunday against the Colts. After week one, there were many questions surrounding this team, but many of those were cleared up in a week two win over the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that entered Atlanta as a three-point road favorite. Atlanta showed much improvement on both sides of the ball in their win. Julio Jones caught his second and third touchdowns of 2019, so it is obvious that he and Matt Ryan are on the same page. Remember, last season Julio did not score a TD until week seven of the season, so he is well ahead of last year’s numbers. Also for the offense, the O-Line looked much improved. Matt Ryan was pressured much less than he was in Minnesota in week one and he was only sacked once by a very talented Eagles defense. As for the Atlanta defense, man did they look better. Desmond Trufant, who all of 2018 had problems finishing interceptions was able to bring in two of them against Carson Wentz, both on the Atlanta side of the field to stop Eagles drives. Along with a hard-hitting and aggressive secondary, was a run defense that was much more effective than in week one. Against Minnesota in the 28-12 loss, the Falcons defense allowed the Vikings running back, Dalvin Cook, to run wild all day. Cook ran for 111 of the Vikings 172 yards and two scores in the dominant performance in week one over Atlanta. However, in week two against Philly, the Falcons were much more active and far more impressive. The Falcons only allowed 49 yards rushing on 21 carries against the Eagles on Sunday night. The longest Eagles run went for just five yards. Chances are, the Falcons defensive front will not be able to do THAT week in and week out, but somewhere in the middle of those two performances is just what they need. Especially this weekend against the Colts.

It is impossible to bring up the Indianapolis Colts without bringing up the sudden and oddly timed retirement of Andrew Luck. In Luck’s absence, the Colts handed the keys over to Jacoby Brissett. In the Colts 1-1 start, Brissett has not been a superstar; however, he has not been bad either. Brissett through two games has passed for 336 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception. If the Colts are going to be any sort of a contender this season, the interception and turnover numbers will be crucial. Brissett so far has passed that test.
Along with the play of Brissett, the Colts look to the run game led by Marlon Mack in 2019. The Colts will not want to get themselves caught up in many shootouts this season…if they do, it probably will not end well. The Colts will lean on a decent defense and strong run game to shorten contests and keep the opposing offenses off the field which creates lower scoring games that they feel they can make the late plays to win. Sounds easy enough in theory, but trust me, it is not as easy as advertised…especially against teams like the Atlanta Falcons.

As much as I hate picking the Atlanta Falcons because they always find a way to screw me over, I really think they win this game with ease on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts offense will not be enough to play with the Falcons, and in the end, Atlanta will walk away with a 24-16 type win. Sounds like a close one but I can see Atlanta jumping out big and Indy making some late plays to cause the score to look more respectable than what it really is. Atlanta cruises to a 2-1 record on Sunday.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: For some reason, I am all over the Atlanta Falcons this week. Take the Birds -2 at Indy! Not only does Atlanta cover, but they also win outright!