Houston Texans(3-5SU, 5-3ATS) vs. LA Rams(6-2SU, 5-3ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 12th, 4:05pm ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, CA
Point Spread:HOU +11.5 / LAR -11.5
Over/Under Total: 46
This Sunday at 4:05pm in Los Angeles, we have an AFC/NFC game that I was excited about until recently. I could not wait to see the Texans and Deshaun Watson go into LA and take on an up and coming Rams team that is 6-2 and leading the NFC West. Of course, this game changed when Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in a non contact drill in practice putting him out for the remainder of 2017. We wish Mr Watson a speedy recovery but now the Texans have to roll with Tom Savage at the helm for the rest of the way. I still think this could be a very competitive game regardless, it just lost some of its luster.
Due to the injury to Watson, the Vegas line is much different than it would have been. The Rams are now 11.5 point favorites at home, which is huge for an NFL game. With that said though, there is still a lot of action on LA to get this win and cover it. Even as a double digit favorite, 67% of the action has been put on the Rams and if this trend stays in place, this line could shift another point or two by kickoff in a few days. As for the over under which is set at 46, the public is about even with 53% thinking it goes under that number. Both of these teams are very different record wise on the season, but both of these teams are 5-3 against the spread in 2017…could this mean something?
I knew the LA Rams were in the process of building a solid team but this team is having success much earlier than I thought. Sitting at 6-2, Los Angeles is the 2nd seed in the NFC right now behind Philadelphia. As for their own division, the Rams lead the NFC West by a game over Seattle (who already beat LA earlier). So, how has the Rams become so good this season? There are a few reasons. First and foremost, the offense is the top scoring offense in the NFL. LA is averaging right at 33 points a game in 2017 and this is not just because of a great run game, it is a well balanced offense. The Rams are averaging 131 yards a game on the ground, led by Todd Gurley, but second year QB, Jared Goff, also has played well enough to have this team ranked in the top ten in passing yards through the first half of this season. So yeah, there you have it, the Rams have a great offense…and if that was not enough, these dudes are playing defense too. Los Angeles is allowing opponents to only score 19 a game which ranks them in the top ten in scoring defense as well. This is just a good team.
The key this weekend for the Rams will be to not make mistakes. They are the better team on paper, especially with Deshaun Watson out of the lineup and as long as the Rams do not make any boneheaded turnovers, have any busted coverages, or allow any huge special teams plays, they should be okay. Just play your game Rams.
Well, now it is time to figure out how Houston can win this game, or at least keep it respectable and come within the 11.5. Statistically, the Texans are not a bad team. They are ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing and are scoring slightly over 28 points per game. But, that was with Deshaun Watson. Having a mobile QB like Watson was much of the reason the Texans run game was so successful. With Tom Savage, who is a pretty decent quarterback, it just is not in his skill set to make the plays and fool defenses the way Watson did. So what does Houston need to do? First off, play better defense. The Texans are allowing teams to score 26 points a game and those are teams that do not have the same talent as this Rams team. Houston needs to make sure they stop the run and force Goff to make plays in the passing game. To be honest, this is exactly what the Rams are going to do to Houston with Savage now at QB. This game is going to be a chess match and should be fun to watch.
I will keep this simple. I do not think that the Houston Texans can go into LA and get this win, but ANY TIME I see a team getting this many points, I am going to take the points in the NFL. I think the Rams win but I can see some sort of back door cover type situation. I like Los Angeles 27-17 in this game with Houston scoring a late meaningless touchdown to break the hearts of gamblers on the big fave.
Bob’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE HOUSTON TEXANS +11.5. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a 50% bonus up to $250 at one of the web’s oldest and most trusted betting sites: BOVADA