Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

by | Oct 20, 2022 | nfl

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, October 23, 1 p.m.

Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND +2.5/TEN -2.5 (MyBookie – Score a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100)

Total: O/U 42.5

Outlook

Against all odds, the Colts are a game out of first place in the AFC South and have a winning record. There’s really no reason that Indianapolis should be sitting in first place at this point, given that the Colts are just two bad decisions on the part of Russell Wilson and Chris Jones away from being 1-4-1 on the season. Until stealing the game against Jacksonville at home last week, the Colts hadn’t really looked like a team that deserved to win all season. Yet somehow, they will sit atop the division with a win, which points to how poor the AFC South has been in 2022.

But to get there, the Colts have to go through the Titans, who have owned them ever since Andrew Luck called it a career. Tennessee already made the trip up Interstate 65 to Indianapolis and won this year, and the Titans are riding a three-game winning streak after the schedule softened up a bit and gave them games with the Raiders and Commanders outside of their win over the Colts. Indianapolis might have debuted a new style of offense last time out, but Tennessee has proven effective using the same type of ground-based attack against Indianapolis for the past two seasons. Can the Colts turn the tables and move into first place?

How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis/Tennessee Game

The public and the money are both high on the Titans in this situation. Both the money and 73% of tickets have come in on the Titans, and the line ticked up from -2 to -2.5 The total is unchanged.

Injury Concerns

Indianapolis:

Running back Deon Jackson (quadricep), running back Nyheim Hines (concussion), and safety Julian Blackmon (ankle) are probable. Wide receiver Keke Coutee (concussion), tight end Kylen Granson (neck), running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), linebacker Shaquille Leonard (concussion), defensive end Kwity Paye (ankle), and defensive tackle Eric Johnson (illness) are questionable. Wide receiver Ashton Dulin (foot), safety Trevor Denbow (ankle), safety Armani Watts (ankle), punter Rigoberto Sanches (Achilles), tight end Andrew Ogletree (knee), and tackle Carter O’Donnell (undisclosed) are out.

Tennessee:

Defensive back Amani Hooker (concussion) and linebacker Bud Dupree (hip) are probable. Fullback Tory Carter (neck), safety Ugo Amadi (ankle), linebacker Zach Cunningham (elbow), linebacker Joe Jones (knee), and guard Nate Davis (knee) are questionable. Linebacker Ola Adeniyi (wrist), wide receiver Racey McMath (hip), wide receiver Treylon Burks (toe), defensive back Chris Jackson (undisclosed), tackle Taylor Lewan (knee), tackle Jamarco Jones (elbow), running back Trenton Cannon (leg), safety A.J. Moore (ankle), defensive end DaShawn Hand (quadricep), linebacker Chance Campbell (knee), cornerback Elijah Molden (groin), linebacker Harold Landry III (knee) and kicker Caleb Shudak (leg) are out.

When Indianapolis Has the Ball

The big question concerning the Colts is how they will try to approach facing Tennessee. They went with a conventional strategy against the Titans last time out and lost 24-17 because they got nothing that resembled a competitive NFL offense. Since that game, the Colts showed a lot more aggressive play in the air and were aggressive when it mattered most against Jacksonville, throwing for the winning points once they had already gotten into field goal range.

It’s clear this is a patchwork setup that’s more about getting the Colts through this season and keeping their window of opportunity open, and it’s working just well enough to survive in the AFC South. But the Titans handled both quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Jonathan Taylor last week, so the Colts are going to have to change things up to make another run at the Titans and the division. Last time, the Titans got two first-quarter touchdowns to put Indianapolis behind the eight-ball and force the Colts out of their game plan. Indianapolis has two great options in the red zone in Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods, but the Colts have to get the ball in position to score first before that can be effective. They also can’t afford to turn it over three times as they did in the first meeting.

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When Tennessee Has the Ball

The Titans should have lost based on yardage against Indianapolis, but they didn’t because Ryan Tannehill effectively managed the game and kept the Titans from ever putting themselves in a position to get beaten. It helps that Derrick Henry dominated the game from start to finish, gaining 114 yards on 22 carries and keeping the clock moving when the Titans had the football. With no real answer for Henry, Indianapolis has found itself frustrated in the past four games of this rivalry, and Tennessee has no real signs of slowing down anytime soon.

The Titans didn’t exactly play well in the first meeting on offense, but they didn’t have to. As long as Tannehill avoids the big mistake, there’s a good chance that the Colts are going to make it. This game often comes down to who makes the fewest errors, and lately, that’s been Indianapolis. Tennessee isn’t wowing anyone on offense, but as long as the Titans don’t set the Colts up with a short field, they should do enough to help keep control of the game.

More Picks: Get Loot’s Kansas City at San Francisco 10/23/22 betting analysis & free pick

Betting Trends

The Colts have really struggled against their own division as of late, covering just once in five games against the AFC South. Up until their recent skid in Tennessee, Nissan Stadium had been a friendly place for the Colts, as they’d covered in seven of their past ten games in Nashville, with the road team covering in four of eight games. The under has also been reliable in Colt division games, as Indy has cashed under in six of seven against the South.

Unders fit well with the Titans, who have gone under in six of their past seven at home and eight of nine on grass. The Titans are also October beasts, having covered six in a row in October.

Weather Report

After a chilly week leading up to the match, game day should be ideal for football. Temperatures will sit at 79 degrees, with winds blowing south eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The way Tennessee won the first game of the series this season suggests that the Titans can do it that way again. Tennessee has run all over Indianapolis, and the Colts likely do not have things figured out with neutralizing Derrick Henry. This should be reasonably close, but Tennessee has played better football and looks like the better bet. Give me the Titans. Question: Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d be saving! Be wise! Take five minutes to make the switch to BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you did!

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1