Note: If you’re
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Texans vs. Jacksvonville Jaguars Pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date and Time: Sunday, November 18 1:00PM EST
Where: Reliant Stadium Houston, Texas
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: JAX +15/HOU -15
Over/Under Total: 40.5
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This weekend we will see an NFL matchup of two teams that are headed in completely opposite directions. The 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to Reliant Stadium to take on the 8-1 Houston Texans. Houston is obviously having their best start in franchise history while Jacksonville, under new head coach Mike Mularky is having trouble just finding an identity. This will be the second time these teams have met this season. Back on September 16th, Houston went into the state of Florida and won the game 27-7 while covering the 13.5 spread. The most impressive stat to me was that the Houston defense was able to hold the Jaguars to only 52 yards passing and 65 yards on the ground. It is obvious the first matchup was pretty one sided, but in pro sports, the hardest thing to do is beat the same team twice, will Jacksonville get their revenge?
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game as 15 point underdogs. It’s not very often you see an NFL line over 2 TDs but here we are. Why are the Jags such huge underdogs? Well, currently, the Jags are ranked in the lower half of the league in rushing yards (30th), passing yards (31st), and rushing defense (29th). Numbers like these aren’t going to translate into many wins in the NFL but one thing that I do like about Jacksonville is that they haven’t given up. Many teams with such a bad record will throw in the towel, the Jags haven’t done thisthey come to play every week and to me, that speaks volumes about their coaching staff. I wish I could give you some area of this Jacksonville team in which they have the advantage over Houston.I just don’t see it. The key to the game for the Jags will be to tighten up on the defensive end and hope their offense can get something going.
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Not only are the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars total opposites with regards to their win/loss record, but their NFL rankings in statistical categories are as well. Houston comes into this game ranked 3rd in the league in both passing defense and rushing defense. On the offensive side of the ball, the Texans rank 8th in rushing but just 23rd in passing. This Houston team is the most solid team in the league right now. They get it done when needed whether it be a big defensive play, or the offense led by Matt Schaub making a big play. Houston has held their opponents to 10 points or less in 4 of their 9 games. They have also scored over 30 points in that very same number of games. The Texans are still playing for the division title, but to me that’s more of a foregone conclusion, the Texans are now playing for the AFCs top seed throughout the playoffs. Will Jacksonville throw a wrench in those plans?
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a pretty big spread here; 15 points in an NFL divisional game? I have been documented before stating the stats of the double digit underdog covering more times than not. 90% of the time, I would look at this spread and bet the Jaguars just based on pure math and odds alone; not this time. Here are some numbers that really stick out to me. The Texans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC Southern division, and 5-1 in their last 6 home games. Those sound good and all, but check this out: The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams. From looking at the records and stats, you would think that Jacksonville hasn’t been competitive, well that’s just simply not true. I am going to play the odds as well as the trends of the away team here. I like Jacksonville to somehow come out and keep this game within the 15 points. Think of it this way, if Houston wins by two touchdowns, you still cover the spread. Bet the Jags bet them hard. PICK: JAX JAGS +15
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