Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday, September 27, 1:00PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxboro, MA
TV: CBS
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: JAX +14 / NE -14
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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Sunday at 1:00pm, the defending Super Bowl champion and 2-0 New England Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are 1-1 fresh off their upset win over the Miami Dolphins this past weekend but still find themselves as heavy underdogs in this game. New England is 2-0 with wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo, both teams that consider themselves legit AFC contenders. This games betting line is insane, but when it is the Patriots playing, you never know.
So what is the spread on this one you ask? Haha. Well, the New England Patriots are 14 point favorites over the Jaguars and the over under total is set at 47.5 points. So it appears they are predicting a 34-14 type contest in my opinion. What is even crazier than a 14 point spread in the NFL? Well, how about the fact that right now, 72% of the action is on the Patriots to actually cover the two touchdowns. Yeah, that is right, only 28% of people are taking a PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM that is being spotted two touchdowns.
Lets start out by discussing the big bad favorite in this game, the New England Patriots. Well, they are starting this season out just like they ended their campaign in 2014, dominating. So far this season, Tom Brady has passed for 754 yards and 7 touchdowns in just two games. Oh, and he has not thrown a pick yet, just sayin. Talk all the trash you want about deflategate, that was just another Brady Hater attempt to bring down who I believe is one of the three best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Inflated ball, deflated ball, whatever, the guy can play, and there are probably 29 other teams out there that wish they had Brady under center rather than the QB they have nowand the other 2 are delusional. Yeah, I am talking to you Green Bay and Denver fans. Anyhow, the Patriots are looking solid offensively but I will say that their defense needs to tighten up a bit. They let Pittsburgh make a mini run late in their season opener, then just this past weekend, they let the Buffalo Bills, who are built solely to play great defense, to score 32. Okay, some of those points were after the Patriots had the game won, but still, they need to play a little better. I do not think the Jaguars will come in and win in Foxboro, but I do think they have a great shot to cover the spread. If New England plans to cover and win this game by two touchdowns or more, they will have to play on both sides of the ball. The defense needs to pressure Blake Bortles. If they cause him to make ill advised passes and the Pats D forces a few turnovers, then they can put this away very early.
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Jacksonville still has that reputation as one of the NFLs worst teams and I think that is an unfair label to put on them. It appears they finally solved the QB problem with Blake Bortles and their defense is actually playing better and better. If Jacksonville can more production from running back TJ Yeldon and he helps them balance their offensive attack, they could seriously become a dangerous team, I mean that. There is not much to say however about this game. Jacksonville needs to just slow the game down. They cannot, and I repeat cannot, go three and out over and over. The Jaguars need long scoring drives and keep Tom Brady, Gronk, and the rest of the Patriots offense on the bench. If Jacksonville lets New England get in the upper 30s, it will be a long day for them. Keep the score low, shorten the game, that is the goal this Sunday!
To me, this is a no brainer pick. It is the NFL guys. If this were college football, I may be all over the Patriots in this one but it is not. 72% of action on a 14 point favorite? No thank you. I dont care who the two teams are, no way I am following the public on that pick. Yes, the Patriots will probably control this game from start to finish, but anytime you give me 14 points in an NFL game, I will take it.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Jacksonville Jaguars +14 points.
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