New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Friday, August 21, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
Friday night’s preseason opener at Acrisure Stadium has a spread that’s a full point wider than most Week 2 games on the board, and that creates real value on the road team getting the points.
The Steelers are 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 39.5. On a Week 2 board where the majority of spreads are sitting at 2.5 or less, Pittsburgh laying nearly a field goal at home stands out. That number reflects a few things — Steelers coming off a dominant Week 1 win, home field advantage, established roster continuity around Aaron Rodgers. What it doesn’t reflect quite as cleanly is that Rodgers is not playing in this game.
That confirmation came from Pittsburgh earlier this week. Aaron Rodgers, who spent 2023 and 2024 with the New York Jets before joining the Steelers, has said publicly he sees no advantage in playing preseason games. He suited up in Week 1 against his former Packers team for the emotional reasons everyone understood. Against the Jets — who cut him loose after his time in New York didn’t work out — he apparently doesn’t need the reps or the revenge tour. He’s watching from the sideline.
That levels the quarterback playing field in a big way.
Pittsburgh’s backup room is running through a legitimate three-way competition. Mason Rudolph is the veteran holdover. Will Howard is entering his second NFL season. Drew Allar is a rookie third-round pick who’s been developing under new head coach Mike McCarthy’s staff since minicamp. None of those three quarterbacks has the ability to move an NFL offense the way Rodgers does. All three of them are going to see the field on Friday night.
On the Jets sideline, Geno Smith is running the show. Smith was acquired via trade from Las Vegas this offseason and named the Jets’ starting quarterback for 2026 back in training camp. Aaron Glenn has already demonstrated in Week 1 against Tampa Bay that he’s willing to play his starters for meaningful reps in the preseason. Smith played, Garrett Wilson played, and the Jets moved the ball effectively before losing 24-16 in a game that easily went Over the total. Glenn is aggressive in August, and he’s going to want another look at Smith’s rhythm and timing before Week 1 of the regular season.
So the QB matchup — the single most important factor in any preseason game — actually tilts toward the visiting Jets when you strip away the starting quarterback assumptions. Geno Smith versus Steelers backups is not a matchup where you lay 3.5 points on the road-favored assumption.
The coaching context matters too. Mike McCarthy is in his first year with the Steelers after taking over for Mike Tomlin, who retired following the 2025 season ending an 18-year tenure. First-year head coaches installing new systems typically run vanilla playcalling in preseason to evaluate roster, not to run up scores. McCarthy has historically leaned Over in preseason totals across his career, but that was primarily with established Packers offenses. This new Pittsburgh setup is a work in progress, and Week 1 backed that up — the Steelers won 28-9, but the total 37 was under the 39.5 that was posted for that game.
Aaron Glenn, meanwhile, is in year two with the Jets. He’s had a full offseason to install his defense, and his squad has demonstrated in preseason that they’re not just checking a box. The Jets went 3-0 to the Over in the 2025 preseason, which speaks to Glenn’s approach of playing hard, playing his guys, and letting the offense operate.
The 3.5-point cushion is what makes this a play. Preseason spreads flip on any single garbage-time possession, and when the road team has the better active quarterback and a head coach who’s more aggressive about preseason snaps, that’s exactly the profile of a spot where the favorite might not cover comfortably.
I looked at the total too. There’s a case for the Over based on both teams running backup-heavy offenses with QB competitions that lead to more possessions and more variance. But the side is where I see the more definable edge given how much the Rodgers-sitting factor changes the on-field talent balance.
The Pick: New York Jets +3.5
