Kansas City Chiefs (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 8
October 30th 2016 /Time: 1 PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, IN
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Over/Under Total: 50
One player cannot carry a team in the NFL can they? Well, Andrew Luck is trying, as he has been putting up great numbers and some are even calling him the MVP so far even though the Colts are 3-4. He ranks 3rd in the NFL in passing yards, but has not gotten much help. The Indy defense ranks 28th in the league allowing an average of 28.6 ppg, the rushing offense only ranks 22nd in the league, and Luck has been sacked more than any other QB in the league. Indianapolis beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in their last game.
The Chiefs have won 3 of their last 4 games including their last 2 and they are in the wide open race for the AFC West title. They are not the most exciting team, but they are balanced and they rank a solid tied for 11th in opponents points per game.
These teams have not met since the Wild Card game in 2014 when the Colts beat the Chiefs in a 45-44 barnburner. The Colts covered in that game and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing Kansas City.
The Chiefs are coming off a 27-21 win over the New Orleans Saints. While they gave up nearly 140 more yards to the Saints they had a balanced offensive attack and forced 2 turnovers. Once again, Alex Smith had a steady yet unspectacular game against New Orleans going 17/24 for 214 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. While he only has 7 TD on the season he only has 2 picks and has none in his last 2 games.
KC RB Spencer Ware rushed for 77 yards in the win over the Saints and he may get a bigger workload in this game. The Indy defense has had issues all season and they only rank 27th in the NFL against the pass and 25th against the run.
The Cols have won 2 of their last 3 games, but those wins came against the Titans and Bears. They have not beaten one team this season that currently has a winning record. Lucks numbers are legit this season and in the win over the Titans he passed for 353 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. T.Y. Holton is, by far, Lucks main target, as he has 689 receiving yards while the next leading target does not have 300. Hilton had 133 receiving yards in the win over the Titans and has at least that much in 3 of his last 5 games.
Kansas City ranks 11th in the league in pass defense and 17th in run defense. Can the Colts run the ball in this game? They only rushed for 81 yards in the win over the Titans and Frank Gore only had 61 yards averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. The Kansas City defense will, obviously, be keying on Luck, so there will chances for Gore to have a good game.
Luck has been taken down the most by any QB this season, but he will face a Kansas City pass rush that has the fewest sacks in the league.
The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and only 1-4 ATS facing a team with a losing record. The Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 home games.
Luck will have another big game, but it wont matter. Kansas City will play solid on offense and defend the run well, which is why they will win and cover even on the road.
Jasons Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5
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