Kansas City Chiefs(2-2SU, 3-1ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers(2-2SU,2-2ATS)
Date and Time:October 5th@4:25PM E
Where: Levi’s Stadium
TV: Direct TV
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: KC +6/SF -6
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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The Kansas City Chiefs and Alex Smith play the San Francisco 49ers off a short week. Smith returns to play the team that drafted him. The road team comes in off that big Monday Night football victory over the reeling Patriots. The Chiefs were 3-point home dogs and won by 27 points. They played a great all-around game and won the stats by 153 yards. Kansas City has won the stats in three straight games. San Francisco defeated the Eagles 26-21 as 3.5-point home chalk last week. The 49ers fell behind early, but stormed all the way back and won the stats by 194 yards.
This line opened as the home team being a 5-point favorite. On Monday, sportsbooks have gotten action on both sides. It dropped down to 49ers minus 4.5, but is now climbing to 6. The climb might not stop until game time. There has been some wise guy money coming in on the 49ers as they see a huge class difference between these two teams. Kansas City is coming off that dominating win over New England, but the Patriots are having major problems right now. They struggled to put away the hapless Raiders and look lost on offense on Monday. The Chiefs seem to be getting better in terms of on-field talent. Travis Kelce is a rising star and Jamaal Charles looked solid in his return. The Chiefs like to run so don’t forget about Knile Davis. He has rushed for 100+ yards in two straight games and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. San Francisco has the No. 1 ranked defense against the run (69.8) so look for the Chiefs to play more of a short passing game. The 49ers are allowing just 287 yards per game while the Chiefs are allowing 338.
Both teams are dealing with a lot of injuries. The Chiefs list Eric Berry as questionable who is one the better safeties in the league. Alex Smith is a good quarterback with a solid arm. Most people think he has a weak arm. That could not be further from the truth. You would think that 49ers are very familiar with his style of play and will know how to defend him. The Chiefs really need to run the ball with success and try to shorten this game. The Chiefs have one less day to prepare for the 49ers, who are very physical on both sides of the ball. The home team is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS all time in this series.
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The 49ers can run the ball and stop the run. Two big keys to winning games. The Chiefs offense has come alive the last two games, but don’t get suckered into the hype. Kansas City has scored 75 points in their last two games and will now play a road game. Those NFL teams cover just 33% of the time over the last five seasons. And it’s a short week for the road team which should make that angle even stronger. The Chiefs struggled with Denver and the Titans. Those are two teams that play the same physical style the 49ers like to employ. The 49ers are 7-2 SU and 7-2 in October over the last three seasons. The Chiefs are a very impressive 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS vs the NFC West since 1993.This should be one of your better non-conference games of the week.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers -6
This line may end up at minus -7 by game day. I will back the 49ers at minus -6 points or less.