Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders Best Bet for Week 13

Miami Dolphins (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Washington Commanders (4-8, 5-6-1), 12/3/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 3

Where: FedEx Field

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point spread: Mia -9.5/Wash +9.5

Money line: Mia -460/Wash -360

Total: 49.5

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The Dolphins continue their pursuit of a playoff berth while the Commanders are probably playing out the last weeks of the Coach Rivera era, heading into this inter-conference match-up slated for Sunday afternoon in Landover.

Miami is already closing in on a division title and is favored by almost double-digits for this contest. Can the Dolphins cover the big number? Or does Washington have an upset bid in it?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 13 NFL betting market opened Miami as a nine-point road favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 49.5. Early betting action then edged that line to 9.5.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami owns back-to-back Ws after downing the Jets last Friday, 34-13. The Dolphins, favored by 10 points, scored the first 10 points of the game, pushed their lead to 27-6 early in the fourth quarter, and eased home from there.

Miami DB Jevon Holland turned in the play of the game, returning a Hail Mary interception 99 yards for a touchdown on the last play of the first half, giving the Dolphins a 17-6 lead.

Miami out-gained the Jets 395-159, ran the ball for 167 yards and recorded seven sacks. So the Dolphins have now out-gained and out-rushed each of their last four opponents.

At 8-3 overall, Miami leads the AFC East by 2.5 games over second-place Buffalo, with only six games to play. The Dolphins also only trail 9-3 Baltimore by a half-game in the battle for the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC.

Commanders Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Washington lugs a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at Dallas last Thursday 45-10. The Commanders actually only trailed the Cowboys 20-10 through three quarters but let the game get away from there and whiffed ATS at +13.5.

Washington got out-gained by Dallas 431-376.

Actually, the Commanders have out-gained three of their last five opponents. But they’re also 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS their last six times out, thanks partly to a -7 turnover ratio.

At 4-8 overall, Washington would need a minor miracle to make the playoffs.

These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 17-16 Redskins victory at Miami. Case Keenum quarterbacked Washington that day against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen for the Dolphins.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played five common opponents this season: the Bills, Broncos, Eagles, Patriots, and Giants. Miami played those foes to 4-2 both SU and ATS and +127 yards per game, Washington to 2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS and +2 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

After going 0-7 ATS last week, home dogs are 29-36 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Overs are 6-5 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 54 total points. Even without that outlier against Denver, Miami games are averaging 50 points.

The Overs are 7-5 in Commanders games, which are averaging 50 points.

The Unders are 105-75 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Miami ranks 1st in the League in total offense and 7th in total defense. Washington is a team that’s lost to the Giants twice this season. The Dolphins own five double-digit victories this season. The Commanders own four double-digit defeats. Miami owns the better quarterback, the better running game, the better defense, and the better performance against common opponents. We’ll give the points with the Dolphins Sunday.