2019 NFL MVP Odds and Prediction

Odds and Picks to Win NFL MVP

In one of the more-interesting and potentially-profitable player prop bets, we try to figure out who will win next season’s MVP award. We like this bet for a variety of reasons. It’s always a nice perk when a bet gives you a ton of action. In this bet, you will have a stake in every player you bet for the whole season. It also allows you to capitalize on of any interesting analysis you might have. We only have to go back to last season to see how those willing to take a chance can be rewarded handsomely. Sure, we all know now what Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes is all about, but at the beginning of last season, it wasn’t clear at all. Those who plunked down a bet on Mahomes fell into a nice chunk of change when he fact won the Most Valuable Player Award.

It also helps to take a good look at what goes into winning the MVP. In 6 straight seasons and 11 out of the last 12, a quarterback has won this honor. The most visible position on the field, it’s just an award that seems to cater to this position. As a result, the best quarterbacks are always at the top of the odds-board. Since 1980, there have been eleven non-quarterbacks who won the award, so it’s not impossible. It just takes a lot more from a non-quarterback. And all but two of those times were positions other than running backs, with one receiver and one linebacker winning the award.

As we look at the numbers, running backs as a whole don’t put up numbers like they used to. And it takes a statistically-gigantic season for a back to win the MVP. It’s not even clear if running backs will be given the chance to put up numbers like they did years ago. More or less, we’re looking at quarterbacks here. It’s the safe pick. And while having a team go really far in the playoffs isn’t a prerequisite, winners of these awards are usually on good teams. After all, if a team doesn’t do particularly well, how valuable could a player have been? So when looking at a player to win this award, the viability of his team being a high-quality one needs to be considered.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t venture a little farther down the list in search of a good candidate. Last year showed us this, as people were generally down on the Chiefs’ chances to be good last season. Some may recall when Rams’ quarterback Kurt Warner came out of nowhere at huge odds to win this award. There is enough there to justify a more-lofty choice.

Here are the odds to win this season’s NFL Most Valuable Player Award. At the end of that long list, we will list our top picks, some interesting dark horses, and a few big long-shots that could be worth a tickle at long odds. Take a look!

Odds Courtesy of BetAnySports.com

Patrick Mahomes +450

Andrew Luck +650

Aaron Rodgers +900

Drew Brees +1000

Baker Mayfield +1300

Tom Brady +1400

Carson Wentz +2000

Russell Wilson +2000

Philip Rivers +2500

Matt Ryan +3000

Deshaun Watson +3300

Jimmy Garoppolo +3300

Aaron Donald +4000

Cam Newton +4000

Jared Goff +4000

Alvin Kamara +5000

Ben Roethlisberger +5000

Christian McCaffrey +5000

Dak Prescott +5000

Ezekiel Elliott +5000

Khalil Mack +5000

Le’Veon Bell +5000

Saquon Barkley +5000

Todd Gurley +5000

Lamar Jackson +6500

Nick Foles +7500

Sam Darnold +7500

David Johnson +8000

Joey Bosa +8000

Josh Allen (BUF) +8000

Julio Jones +8000

Kirk Cousins +8000

Michael Thomas +8000

Odell Beckham Jr +8000

Kyler Murray +9000

Antonio Brown +10000

Jameis Winston +10000

JJ Watt +10000

Juju Smith-Schuster +10000

Matthew Stafford +10000

Melvin Gordon +10000

Mitchell Trubisky +10000

Tyreek Hill +10000

A.J. Green +12500

Adam Thielen +12500

Amari Cooper +12500

Dalvin Cook +12500

DeAndre Hopkins +12500

Derek Carr +12500

Devonta Freeman +12500

James Conner +12500

Keenan Allen +12500

Kerryon Johnson +12500

Marcus Mariota +12500

Mike Evans +12500

Nick Chubb +12500

Phillip Lindsay +12500

Adrian Peterson +15000

Brandin Cooks +15000

Cooper Kupp +15000

Davante Adams +15000

Derrick Henry +15000

Dwayne Haskins +15000

Emmanuel Sanders +15000

Jarvis Landry +15000

Joe Flacco +15000

Joe Mixon +15000

Josh Rosen +15000

Leonard Fournette +15000

Mark Ingram +15000

Marlon Mack +15000

Nick Bosa +15000

Sony Michel +15000

T.Y. Hilton +15000

Tarik Cohen +15000

Von Miller +15000

Allen Robinson +20000

Alshon Jeffrey +20000

Andy Dalton +20000

Corey Davis +20000

Daniel Jones +20000

Demaryius Thomas +20000

Desean Jackson +20000

Drew Lock +20000

Eli Manning +20000

Josh Jacobs +20000

Kenny Golladay +20000

LeSean McCoy +20000

Marvin Jones +20000

Stefon Diggs +20000

Tevin Coleman +20000

Courtland Sutton +25000

John Brown +25000

Julian Edelman +25000

Mike Williams +25000

Travis Kelce +25000

Zach Ertz +25000

Top Picks to Win the NFL MVP

Patrick Mahomes (+450): Peyton Manning is the only player to repeat as MVP since the mid-nineties when Brett Favre did it. Mahomes got long odds last year and won the MVP with a fantastic season. But if the Chiefs play really well this season, as they should, and Mahomes stays healthy, he should have the numbers to justify being a top candidate.

Andrew Luck (+650): He has a little sentimentality, having overcome such bad injuries. If the Colts and Luck put it together this season, which is a distinct possibility, he could be hard to deny. With almost 4600 yards and 40 TDs in 2018, a successful run for Indy could mean Luck is the man this season.

Drew Brees (+1000): The Saints should have a heck of a season. And Brees would be 41 by Super Bowl time. Sometimes, an old guy gets a little extra mojo from the voters, many of whom are also past 40. He’s a pretty dependable choice and always delivers and could be a top frontrunner if the Saints thrive.

Baker Mayfield (+1300): There is also some sentimentality involved here, as resurrecting a Browns team that was flat on its back a short time ago would go a long way with voters. His rookie campaign was tremendous and he has more around him now with which to work. The Browns going far would make him a very compelling choice at 13-to-1.

Tom Brady (+1400): A winner of this award in 2007, 2010, and 2017, this season could set up well for him making another run at this award. In a league so strong, another big New England run would likely paint Brady in such a triumphant light that he becomes a difficult guy to not vote for this season.

Top Dark Horse Picks

Carson Wentz (+2000): With some additions made across the offense, Wentz has the right stuff around him to make a run at this honor. Granted, he needs to stay healthy and helping that is one of the best lines in football. With an improved run-game, a stacked pass-catching corps, and a Philly team that could make noise this year, Wentz could be a big part of this conversation.

Philip Rivers (+2500): When looking at players with odds in this range, you want to see a high-ceiling. With everything around Rivers getting better, maybe the combination of a strong team performance and some swelled-up numbers can have him in this discussion come the end of the season.

Deshaun Watson (+3300): Quarterbacks in their third year can sometimes have a little surge. I don’t love that line he plays behind, but a lot things line up for some big numbers. He’s on a pretty good team that got on a huge roll last season and could see some things happen. He has weapons and with a little better form, he could be a high-value candidate at 33-1.

Best Longshot Picks

Kyler Murray (+9000): First, let’s stress the term “long shot.” At 90/1, any bet is going to be fraught with issues and this one has its share of them. First of all, the Cardinals are likely to stink. Secondly, the tools with which this rookie has to work appears to be the thinnest in the conference, if not all of football. But unlike some picks at these odds, we just don’t know yet. He was the top pick and the Cardinals’ new head coach is a pass-heavy guy, so who knows?

Derek Carr (+12500): It’s 125-1, so bear with us for a moment. The Raiders would have to overachieve by a ton to make this one doable. But they added a ton of aerial weaponry, featuring Antonio Brown. No running back would appear to put up much yards. With only a fraction of this season’s tools, he put up over 4000 yards passing last year. However unlikely it may be, I see some value at these odds.