New England at Miami Dolphins Point Spread Bet

New England Patriots (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-2, 5-2), 10/29/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 29

Where: Hard Rock Stadium

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: NE +9.5/MIA -9.5

Money Line: NE +370/MIA -480

Total: 47

Game Overview

The Dolphins are looking to bounce back from a tough loss last week while the Patriots are shooting for a second straight victory, heading into this AFC East rivalry bout Sunday afternoon in South Florida.

Miami’s favored by almost double-digits for this contest. Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 8 NFL betting market opened Miami at -10 over Buffalo, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then shaved that line to -9.5.

Patriots-Dolphins NFL Betting Preview

New England just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 29-25 upset of Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots, catching 8.5 points, scored the first 10 points of the game and led 13-3 at the half. New England later fell down 25-22 with just under two minutes to go but drove 75 yards to a game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left.

• The Patriots out-gained the Bills 364-339.

Four games ago New England lost to Dallas 38-3; then they lost to New Orleans 34-0; then they lost to Las Vegas 21-17. All of which makes last week’s winning effort seem a bit suspect.

Meanwhile, Miami just suffered its second loss of this season, a 31-17 decision at Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Dolphins fell down 17-3 in the second quarter, then rallied to tie the game at 17-17 late in the third quarter. But Miami ran out of gas, gave up the next 14 points and could not respond.

• The Dolphins got out-gained by the Eagles 355-244 and lost time of possession by a 37:23 split.

Two weeks ago Miami beat Carolina 42-21 and three weeks ago they beat the Giants 31-16.

Basically, here’s who the Dolphins are; their five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 8-25 while their two losses are against teams who are 10-4.

Patriots-Dolphins Recent History

Miami owns the recent rivalry with New England, winning five of the last six meetings SU, going 6-0 ATS. The Dolphins took the first meeting between these teams this season 24-17 in Foxboro back in Week 2.

• Miami scored the first 10 points of that game, eventually out-gained the Patriots 389-288 and covered at -1.

NFL Betting Trends

New England is 27-30 SU, 26-30-1 ATS since Tom Brady left the scene.

Totals Report

The unders are 5-2 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 40 total points.

The overs are 4-3 in Dolphins games this season, which, even when we throw out that crazy game against Denver, are averaging 57 points.

After going 9-4 last week the unders are 65-41 in the NFL this season.

The unders are 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

This game sets up perfectly for one of our main NFL handicapping theories; what’s up one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. New England pulled an emotional upset on a hated rival last week; we consider the Patriots good candidates for a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Miami took a tough loss against a good team last week; we consider the Dolphins good candidates to bounce back this week. Also, Miami’s five wins this season, all vs. teams with losing records, came by an average score of 41-22. Also, the Dolphins own New England since Brady left. We’re giving the points with Miami Sunday.