New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2023 | nfl

New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday, October 1st, 2023. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NE +7/Dal -7 (Get a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 w/code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: Pats +275/Pokes -350

Total: 43

Just when it appeared the Dallas Cowboys might be the best team in football, America’s team laid an egg in week 3 with an embarrassing loss to the Arizona Cardinals. In the 28-16 loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys’ defense had their worst performance of the season, allowing 416 yards to a relatively inferior offense. They were completely destroyed in the run game, giving up more than 200 yards on the ground. To make matters worse, the Cowboys offense continued to struggle significantly in the red zone which led to just 16 points despite over 400 yards of total offense. Needless to say, Dallas has a lot of work to do before being considered among the best in the NFL, and that starts this Sunday with an intriguing match-up against the visiting New England Patriots at AT&T Stadium.

The visiting Patriots got their first “W” last week with a 15-10 victory over the struggling New York Jets. Despite a strong defensive effort, the Patriots offense posted its 3rd straight game by being held to 20 points or less. Despite putting a heavy emphasis on the running attack behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, the Patriots have gained just 321 team rushing yards through the first three weeks of the season. Behind the running attack, QB Mac Jones has looked mediocre at best, hitting 63% passing with five touchdowns and two picks. Whether Jones is the problem perhaps is subject to debate, but personally, I just don’t see any star players on the offense that Head Coach Bill Belichick can focus his offense around. Needless to say, concerns linger going into a difficult match-up against the Cowboys defense this Sunday.

New England vs. Dallas Betting Analysis

In analyzing this match-up, I believe we have to question which Dallas defense will show up. The Cowboys’ defense looked incredible in the opening two games, delivering hard hits, forcing turnovers, and pressuring quarterbacks consistently. In last week’s loss to the Cardinals, this defense appeared to have taken a vacation and was pushed around by an inferior offensive line. The match-up this Sunday is not much different for the Dallas defense, and I think we have to expect a better effort following last week’s performance, combined with the fact Dallas will return home to AT&T Stadium.

With that being said, I expect the Patriots to continue to deploy a heavy ground attack behind Stevenson. I just believe for this particular match-up, QB Mac Jones is going to have to play much better to keep it close and avoid turnovers in the process. I just don’t see many match-ups against this Dallas defense that are going to be won on a consistent basis based on schemes and personnel. For the Cowboys, the offensive concerns remain. Patriots HC Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away opposing teams WR1, and I expect that to be a focal point again this week against WR CeeDee Lamb, who was held to meaningless stats in last week’s loss to the Cardinals. If you take Lamb out of this Dallas offense, the Cowboys are much less explosive, and Dallas has struggled mightily in the short-yardage situations. If the Patriots can keep the pressure up, I would not be surprised if Dallas has another performance that produces modest results on the offensive side of the football.


 Patriots vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Patriots are 2-5 SU in the last seven games.
  • The Patriots are 6-1 SU in the last seven games against Dallas.
  • The Patriots have hit the “over” in six of the last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 14-6 SU in the last 20 games.
  • The Cowboys have hit the “over” in each of the last five games at home.
  • The Cowboys have hit the “under” in eight of the last ten games against New England.
  • The Cowboys have hit the “under” in five of the last seven games.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Cowboys defense which, despite last week’s results, remains one of the most talented groups in the NFL. I think the Cowboys will get the stops and potentially get a few turnovers to give Dallas comfort here. I still think the Cowboys have legitimate concerns on the offensive side of the football, and I also lean with the “under” here. However, I’m expecting the Cowboys’ defense to be the big difference-maker and pave the way to a cover!

Jay’s Pick: I’m betting the Dallas Cowboys at -7

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