New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 26, 2017 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: Memorial Coliseum
TV: CBS
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NO +2.5/LAR -2.5
Over/Under Total: 53.5
The New Orleans Saints will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in the top game of Week 12 in the NFL. Both teams hold a one game lead in their respective division as the Saints lead the Panthers by one game in the NFC South and the Rams lead the Seahawks by one game in the NFC West. This intriguing matchup is a bit of a surprise because both teams are coming off losing seasons in 2016. The Saints opened the 2017 with 2 losses but have since rattled off 8 straight wins and have covered the spread in 7 of those games. The Rams have had a remarkable turnaround under 1st year head coach Sean McVay as they were 4-12 in 2016. McVay, former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins is the youngest person to ever coach in the NFL and has proven to be an offensive guru in his first year with the Rams as he has completely turned around this team.
New Orleans is known for Drew Brees and a high flying aerial attack but this season has seen a bit of a change as the Saints have been much more committed to the run game and that run game has shown great dividends. The Saints are averaging 4.8 yards per rush against teams that give up 4.1 yards per rush. RB Mark Ingram has seen a resurgence as he has rushed for 806 yards and 8 touchdowns. Rookie RB Alvin Kamara has also been very impressive as he has rushed for 459 yards with a 6.4 yards per carry and has also chipped in with 447 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns. WR Michael Thomas leads the team in receiving yards with 753 yards. The Saints have averaged 30.2 points per game against teams that average giving up 22.4 points.
As noted, the Rams have had an unbelievable change in the offense. Last year, in QB Jared Goffs rookie season there were questions about whether he was a NFL caliber players. This year he has put those fears to rest as he has thrown for 61.3% of his passes for 2,610 yards and 16 touchdowns. RB Todd Gurley has also bounced back with a good season as he has rushed for 791 yards and 8 touchdowns and added 425 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. The Rams will be without their top WR in Robert Woods who is out 2-4 weeks with a shoulder injury so the bulk of the receiving chores will fall to rookie Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins who was acquired from the Buffalo Bills before the season started. The Rams have been very potent through the air as they have averaged 7.9 yards per attempt against teams that average giving up 6.7 yards per attempt. The Rams have scored an average of 30.3 points against teams who give up 23.2 points per game.
The Saints defense has also been very good during their winning streak as they have only given up an average of 15 points a game in that stretch. They are a little above average against the pass as they have allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt against teams that average 6.7 yards per attempt. Last week, Kirk Cousins was able to throw for 300 yards passing but the 4 games before that the Saints only gave up an average of 118 yards passing per game.
The Rams defense will be severely tested by the Saints running game because they have had trouble stopping the run. They are giving up an average of 4.5 yards per rush against teams that average 4.1 yards. The Rams have only allowed an average of 18.6 points per game but when you look at the list of teams played they have done that against several teams with backup QBs or really bad offenses.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: In this game we have a matchup where the Saints running game is strong and the Rams have difficulty against the run. When you add that to the fact that the Rams will be without their top receiving threat I think that means the wrong team is favored in this game. I look for the Saints to win this game by a score of 31-21 and move their winning streak to 10 games. My recommendation is to play the Saints plus 2.5 points. – Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a FAT 100% bonus up to $1000 at MyBookie! (Use Promo Code: PRDCT14)
