New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Pick ATS

by | Sep 21, 2021 | nfl

New Orleans Saints (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday September 26th, 2021. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough, MA

Point Spread: NO +1/NE -1 (GTBets - An underrated sportsbook that offers a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500!)
Over/Under Total: 45.5

After delivering one of the most unexpected blowout upsets in Week 1 over the Packers, the Saints fell back to earth last Sunday with a Week 2 dud against the Carolina Panthers in a 26-7 defeat. The difference between the Saints’ performance in Week 1 and Week 2 were polar opposites. QB Jameis Winston was flawless in the opener and could not get anything going against an average Panthers defense. In fact, Winston appeared to show more of the signs from his Buccaneers days that had many questioning if he is an NFL caliber starting quarterback by completing just 11 of 22 passes for 111 yards with two interceptions as the Saints had one of their worst offensive performances in recent memory.

At 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS, the Saints will try to regroup in week 3 with a road trip to Foxborough for a meeting with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are on the heels of their first win of the season, coming from a 25-6 execution over the Jets. After a disappointing Week 1 performance against Miami, the Patriots played well on both sides of the ball and rookie quarterback Mac Jones played better by completing 22 of 30 passing for 186 yards. Overall, the Patriots do not have the talent that will overwhelm opponents this year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, Head Coach Bill Belichick is getting effective execution out of the offense, and the Patriots’ defense will give them opportunities to win throughout the season. In fact, it is the Patriots defense that has me leaning towards another New England cover on Sunday.

Jameis Winston vs. Patriots defense

The match-up to watch on Sunday will be the Saints offense against the Patriots defense. To be more specific, the match-up to watch will be the bipolar performance of QB Jameis Winston against a Patriots defense that already leads the NFL with five interceptions through the first two weeks of the season. Winston could not hit anything last week with the Panthers defense applying consistent pressure. On Sunday, the Saints will get a dangerous Patriots defense that not only can apply pressure but they disguise their coverages extremely well.

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Personally, I am a fan of Head Coach Sean Payton as I believe he is one of the best play-callers in the NFL. However, we also just saw how hard it is to yield any productivity on offense if you cannot do the little things correctly. In last week’s loss, star running back Alvin Kamara produced just five rushing yards on eight attempts and gained just 26 yards receiving on four receptions. If you consider Kamara is the lifeline of the Saints offense, those numbers just can’t happen. However, if you have a quarterback that cannot threaten to stretch the field, defenses will stack the box and shadow Kamara with better effectiveness. This is exactly what we saw last week, as the Saints produced just 128 total yards of offense, marking the lowest total ever in Payton’s historic tenure in New Orleans.

Obviously, I don’t expect the Saints’ to be that bad again this week in New England. In most similar situations in the NFL where good offenses have a really bad performance, we would see strong bounce backs performances the following week. However, I’m just not convinced that will happen in Foxborough to the degree the Saints will need to come out victorious. The Patriots’ coaching staff is among the best in the business in game-planning for their opponents, and rest assured they will try to get pressure on the unstable Winston. When that happens, I can easily see turnovers being the major storyline again that leads to another Saints demise. Without the option to stretch the field consistently, I believe the Patriots defense will play well and rely on the methodical, conservative offensive approach to lead the team to victory.

Saints vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Saints are 4-2 ATS in the last six games
  • The Saints are 9-3-1 ATS in the previous 13 games
  • The Saints have hit the “under” in five of the last five games
  • The Saints are 7-3 ATS in the previous ten meetings against the Patriots
  • The Patriots are just 2-4 ATS in the last six games
  • The Patriots have hit the “under” in eight of the last ten games
  • The Patriots have hit the “under” in five of the previous seven games at home
  • The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in thier last five games against NFC opponents

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