New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Pick ATS

by | Oct 15, 2020 | nfl

New York Jets (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3, 3-2), 10/18/20

Time: 4:05 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 18

Where: Hard Rock Stadium


Point spread: Jets +8/Dolphins -8 (BetOnline - Excellent in-game betting platform!)

Moneyline: Jets +290/Dolphins -375

Over/Under: 47.5

Coming off a huge upset victory last week the Miami Dolphins look to avoid a letdown and reach .500 when they host the hapless Jets for an AFC East divisional bout Sunday afternoon down in South Florida. Miami’s favored by a touchdown-plus for the first time in three seasons. Can the Dolphins cover the big number? Can the Jets show some life? And how are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 6 NFL betting odds opened the Dolphins at -8.5 for this game, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -8 and dropped that total to 47.5.

Jets Set-Up

New York remains one of the last three winless teams in the League this season, after losing at home to Arizona last Sunday 30-10. The Jets, with Joe Flacco at quarterback in place of an injured Sam Darnold, managed just one first down on their first three possessions of the game, trailed 7-0 seven minutes in and 17-3 at the half. New York pulled to within 17-10 late in the third quarter but faded from there, as the Cardinals tacked on the last 13 points of the game.

New York also whiffed against the spread as a seven-point home dog.

The Jets had chances to keep things closer but got stuffed on 4th-and-1 at the Arizona 13-yard line in the second quarter and shortly thereafter settled for a very short field goal out of a 1st-and-goal situation.

On the day New York got out-gained by Arizona 496-285 and out-rushed 127-123. So the Jets have now been out-gained in every game this season, and out-rushed in four of five.

New York opened this season with a 27-17 loss to Buffalo, then lost to San Francisco 31-13, then lost to Indianapolis 36-7 and then lost to Denver 37-28. And not only are the Jets losing games outright, they can’t cover a spread, either, even as dogs of 6.5, seven, 12.5 and seven points.

More Picks: Get Mann’s Broncos vs. Pats Week 6 Prediction >>>

Miami Set-Up

Miami, meanwhile, is 2-3 on the season, after drilling the defending NFC champion 49ers in Santa Clara last Sunday 43-17. The Dolphins, playing as eight-point underdogs on the other side of the country, drove their first two possessions of the game 79 and 56 yards to touchdowns and a 14-0 lead. Miami let the 49ers get within 14-7 early in the second quarter, then used a 16-0 run to take a 30-7 lead into halftime and cruised from there.

In the process the Dolphins cashed in on the NFL money line at a price of around +315.

Miami out-gained San Francisco 436-258, dominated time of possession by a 37:23 clip and won the turnover battle 3-0.

Still, it was the first time this season the Dolphins out-gained an opponent.

Miami opened this season with a 21-11 loss to New England, although that was a one-score game well into the fourth quarter. The Dolphins then gave up a fourth-quarter lead and lost to Buffalo 31-28 but covered as six-point dogs. Miami then won at Jacksonville 31-13, then lost at home to 5-0 Seattle 31-23. So the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS their last four times out.

Jets-Dolphins Recent History

Miami is 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS over the last eight meetings with the Jets. Last year these teams split their two meetings, the Dolphins winning at home 26-18, then New York winning in New Jersey 22-21.

NFL Betting Trends

  • The Jets are 7-14 both SU and ATS in a season-plus under Coach Gase.
  • The Dolphins are 7-14 SU but 12-9 ATS in a season-plus under Coach Flores.
  • The Dolphins are 7-11 SU, 11-7 ATS with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback.
  • Home teams are only 39-36 SU, 33-41 in the NFL this season.
  • Favorites are 51-24 SU but only 35-39 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 3-2 in Jets games this season, which are averaging 47 total points against an average over/under of 43.
  • Unders are 3-2 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 50 points against an average total of 48.
  • Unders are 3-1 over the last four games in this series between these teams.
  • Overs are 42-33 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

The Dolphins just pulled off a big upset on the other side of the country, which normally would set them up for a letdown the following week. But it probably won’t come against the Jets, who remain in the running for the worst team in the League. Miami can reach .500 with a victory while New York’s struggling just to stay in games. We like the Dolphins here, minus the points. Note: When you bet on football or basketball, is your bookie charging you -110 odds? (or higher?) Did you know that you could be wagering at only -105? This saves you 50 bucks for every thousand that you wager. That really adds up! Dump your overpriced bookie TODAY and start saving big bucks by betting at -105 odds today at BetAnySports!