New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Picks 11/3/19

by | Oct 29, 2019 | nfl

New York Jets (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida

Point Spread: NYJ +5.5 / MIA +5.5 (Pinnacle) Total: 41

Power Rankings: Pick-Em

Takeaways From Week 8

After a brief moment of brilliance in an upset win against the Cowboys, the Jets have returned to orbit when they were rolled in Jacksonville 29-15 last Sunday at the hands of the hosting Jaguars. As a result, Gang Green was unable to come in under the number as they closed as a seven-point underdog. In the game preceding, the Jets were embarrassed on Monday Night Football when they were hosed 33-0 at home by their rival, the New England Patriots.

We need not get into Miami’s record on the year, it speaks for itself. Most recently, the Dolphins were in action against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football when Miami came to the Steel City. Closing as a 14-point underdog and a public choice, the Dolphins narrowly earned their third consecutive cover when they fell 27-14 to the Steelers.

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How the Public is Betting the New York-Miami Game

So far, this market has been split right down the middle in terms of who the public fancies. At the moment, 51% of the consensus are leaning Miami. Early action has come in Miami, which took the line down to +4.5 before the line would bounce back to its present state. This to and fro movement showcases how divided the betting masses are on this contest.

The Historicals

The Dolphins have controlled this series as of late as they have won the last three meetings between both sides. The Dolphins and Jets last met on November 4th, 2018, in Miami, where the Dolphins edged out their rivals 13-6 to cover as a three-point favorite.

Reduced Juice Sportsbook

BAS Sportsbook
BET AT -105

Betting Trends

Perhaps one of the top-selling points in the trends analysis is the fact that the Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the previous eight matches. To bolster the appeal of New York, the Jets are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Miami.

Injury Concerns

The most notable injury concern once again circulates around Jets Quarterback Sam Darnold, who is listed as day-to-day with a thumb injury. Darnold is expected to be under center against Miami despite the injury.

Why We Like Miami To Cover:

As highlighted in the trends above, the Jets have been profitable against the spread when they are in Miami, but they have been very poor on the road this season. In fact, New York is 0-3 SU outside of MetLife Stadium, and they are 1-2 ATS when doing so. In all three of these scenarios, the Jets were the underdog. In their lone cover on the road, the Jets were a 20-point pooch against New England. Taking back 20 points has been historically profitable to the recipient of the points as the Favorite has only covered once in NFL history when laying 20 points to any given team. However, the tables have turned in this spot. A team in disarray like the Jets giving points away is insulting to the Dolphins even if Miami has not offered a lot of eye candy to viewers this season. Be that as it may, there some other sports betting sites that would suggest that this game be a pick-em and that Miami is supremely undervalued. As such, we will play that accordingly.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Miami +5.5

I will be honest and confess I was very much tempted to play Miami outright on the Money Line here. However, there are plenty of points to work with, and we have to like that position heading into this fierce AFC East rivalry match-up. For those that to do feel adventurous enough to take the plunge, splitting the bet between the points and Miami at +200 on the Money Line offers tremendous value and up-side. Miami has owned the emotional edge in this series, and let’s call it what it is: this is their best shot to win a game this season and avert the catastrophe of potentially going win-less. The Dolphins and their faithful will grind this one out and offer a spirited performance to topple a hated rival. Should the Jets pull this one out, they are simply not a good enough team to be laying more than a field goal to anyone. There is value to be had across the board in taking the Dolphins here.