NFC North Pick: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) at Chicago Bears (4-8, 5-5-2), 12/10/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 10

Where: Soldier Field

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point spread: Det -3/Chic +3

Money line: Motor City -175/Da Bears +145

Total: 41.5

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The Lions are trying to close out a division title while the Bears are playing better ball as of late, heading into the 188th edition of this ol’ Black and Blue rivalry Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

These teams just met three weeks ago in Detroit, a game the Lions stole in the last few minutes. And they’re favored to win Sunday’s game, too.

Betting Market

The Week 14 NFL betting market opened Detroit as a divisional road favorite at -4.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 45.5. Early betting action then hacked that line down to -3 and dropped that total down to 41.5.

Lions Betting Preview

Detroit just bounced back from that Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay to win at New Orleans last Sunday 33-28. The Lions pounced out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead, let the Saints get within 24-21 in the third, but re-applied the gas, tacked on nine points, and held on for the win and the cover at -3.5.

Detroit actually got out-gained by New Orleans 362-347, but much of that was situational, as the Lions played with a big early lead. Detroit also ran the ball for 142 yards and turned the only two turnovers of the game into touchdowns.

The Lions have now out-rushed four of their last five opponents, going 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in the process.

At 9-3 overall Detroit is closing in on its first division title since 1993. The Lions also only trail 10-2 Philadelphia by one game in the battle for the best record in the NFC, although passing both the Eagles and the 49ers is probably too much to ask.

Bears Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Chicago is 4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games after winning at Minnesota two weeks ago 12-10. The Bears then enjoyed last week off.

Chicago led for a good chunk of that game against the Vikings, fell down 10-9 late, but drove 66 yards to a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds left.

The Bears out-gained Minnesota 317-242, won time of possession 36:24, and came up with four interceptions.

Three games ago, Chicago out-played Carolina and won 16-13. Two games ago, the Bears out-played the Lions at Ford Field, led 26-14 with just four minutes left but pissed the game away and lost 31-26.

So basically, Chicago should own a three-game winning streak.

At 4-8 overall, the Bears trail the 6-6 Packers by two games and five other teams in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings. So Chicago’s still alive, but not by much.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played seven common opponents this season: the Packers, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Raiders, Saints, Chargers, and Panthers. Detroit played those foes to 7-1 SU and ATS and +113 yards per game, Chicago to 2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS, and -42 YPG.

Lions-Bears Recent History

Detroit owns a three-game winning streak on Chicago, sweeping the season series last year by scores of 31-30 and 41-10, then taking the first meeting between the teams this season 31-26. But as mentioned above the Bears should have won that game three weeks ago and they covered at +8.

NFL Betting Trends

After going 1-5 SU and ATS last week, home dogs are 25-50 SU and 30-41 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

• The Overs are 8-4 in Lions games this season, averaging 51 total points.
• The Overs are 7-5 in Bears games this season, averaging 45 points.
• The Overs played 9-4 in the NFL last week, but on the season, the Unders are 109-84.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit is five games better than Chicago in the W/L columns and owns a much better performance against common opponents. However, these teams are closer than that. The Bears are playing improved ball lately, the defense is coming up with turnovers and QB Fields looked good last time out (outside the fumbles). Also, Chicago out-played the Lions three weeks ago. Honestly, we’re not big fans of Fields, but we are betting the Bears Sunday, for the win on the money line.