NFL Betting Systems

by | Jul 18, 2022 | nfl

We’re not a fan of NFL football betting systems at all, but since you’re seeking them out, we’ll do our best to explain how you should approach this topic, which often is full of misconceptions and B.S.!

However, this isn’t to say that we don’t believe in one team’s motivation after being beaten numerous times in a row by another team or similar information to such a scenario. Some teams also have nice home winning streaks that they have built up, which can make for a nice trend to play, but one should be aware that betting systems of any kind have proven worthless over the long term.

Betting systems can be compared to a magic pill that claims, “Take this and lose 100 pounds!” If it were only that easy! While the only way to lose weight is to create a caloric deficit, drink lots of water, and exercise, winning at football betting can only be accomplished by putting in the work of watching the games, paying attention to which team is winning at the line of scrimmage, handicapping statistics and like a military sniper, only taking your shot when you have a clear advantage in hitting your target.

With that said, let’s take a look at a few “systems” out there and what’s both good and bad about them.

There is one in particular. A betting system called “The Double Up System” that is really interesting but is more than likely to get you into serious trouble unless you are a ridiculously astute sports handicapper who is an expert at exercising perfect money management. Basically, we’re talking about a Unicorn here.

The theory here is to double up if you lose.

Let’s say that you bet one game at $110 to win $100. (Did you know that you only have to bet -105 on sides/totals if you make the switch to Betanysports? - Much better option!) You lose, so on the next bet, you wager $220 to win $200. If it loses, you next bet $440 to win $400. Say it wins. You have effectively won $400 while losing $330. The problem with betting this way is that if you hit a huge losing streak, you’re looking at needing to bet amounts that are unreasonable and, in most cases, “not sustainable.” Ten-game losing streaks CAN happen. I once saw a professional handicapper go 0-11 in one weekend! And this was a guy who had hit 63% the prior season! While not likely, it does happen. Even to the best football handicappers. For a longer version and explanation of the double up system, check out our article on the Martingale System.

One of the better NFL betting systems we’ve seen is to bet on winless teams around the Week 5 mark of the season. Bettors lose faith, stop betting them, and the bookies take note and inflate the favorite point spreads in those games, giving the underdog huge value. Especially when these lines cross key numbers.

Another NFL handicapping angle that isn’t really a system play, but “kind of” is, are NFL sandwich games. I say “kind of” because it’s a bet you’re placing blindly based on variables that have nothing to do with handicapping the game or using statistics to make your play. With that being said, it’s probably the most solid angle on this page!

In summary, a betting system sounds good on paper but is a losing proposition. You can’t outsmart the “house.” Casinos love system players. They comp them suites, free food, and show tickets because the house knows that eventually, everyone runs cold and busts out.

I know you came here looking for a quick and easy way to make some easy cheese. I’m sorry to break it to you that it doesn’t exist. Anybody who tells you otherwise is blowing smoke up your gazoo. You can, however, win by approaching each game as an individual event and handicapping a bunch of variables that will help you find an edge. As your Dad told you, “there’s no substitute for hard work.”

Before we go, we do have one system that you should put in place that will literally automatically bring you 1.19% closer to winning. When you bet on games at -110 odds, you have to win 52.38% of your wagers to break even. If you bet on games at -105 instead, that lowers your break-even point to 51.19%. Most aren’t aware, but there are a couple of sportsbooks on the web that do offer reduced vig, and it doesn’t cost you anything! You just need to take 5 minutes to make the switch to Betanysports Sportsbook! They’ve been online for many moons. We’ve advertised them for over ten years with zero complaints. Click here to sign up now! You’ll be so glad you did!

For more good reads that will help increase your chances of beating the sportsbooks, check out our football betting tips page!