NFL Football Picks

Derrick Henry is averaging nearly 100 rushing yards over the last two weeks and now faces a Patriots run defense that has dropped to 18th in DVOA. We break down the against the spread movement and why TreVeyon Henderson’s emergence in the Patriots’ backfield makes the 48.5-point total a prime target for a high-scoring Sunday night affair.

Las Vegas enters as a massive 14.5-point underdog, fresh off a shutout loss where they mustered only 75 total yards. We analyze the point spread and why Houston’s pass rush, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, is primed to exploit a Raiders offensive line that has allowed a league-high 49 sacks this season.

Detroit enters as a 7-point favorite, boasting the NFL’s #1 scoring offense (30.6 PPG). However, the confirmed absence of T.J. Watt (lung) shifts the burden to Rodgers and a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 8th in points per play (0.431). We analyze the point spread and why Watt’s injury transforms this matchup from a defensive battle into a high-stakes indoor shootout.

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals (-3) at TB. Road favorite getting points against defensively-challenged home team that’s quit. Is that the play or is Chad banking on another bet?

While the Dolphins turn to Ewers to save a stagnating offense, they face a Cincinnati defense that, while statistically vulnerable, has a history of confusing young quarterbacks. We analyze the point spread and why Joe Burrow’s experience provides the definitive edge in a game where the total has plummeted following the QB change.

A classic RBD handicapping breakdown — systems vs instincts, ATS trends, and betting psychology collide in this Bears vs Packers prediction.

Buffalo is laying double digits on the road, but the real story is a total of 41.5 in a game featuring 15 mph winds and sub-freezing temperatures. Discover why the total pick and Buffalo’s #1 rush play percentage provide the statistical edge for Sunday’s best bet.

While Gardner Minshew takes over at quarterback, the focus shifts to a Kansas City defense that ranks in the top 5 for scoring. We analyze the ATS pick and why Tennessee’s inability to sustain drives makes the Chiefs the more reliable operation in a low-margin environment.