NFL Week 6 Picks: Cowboys vs. Patriots

by | Oct 12, 2021 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 6

Date/Time: Sunday October 17th, 2021. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough, MA


Point Spread: DAL -4/NE +4

Over/Under Total: 49.5

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Against the spread, the Dallas Cowboys remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL with a perfect 5-0 mark ATS. After a close loss to Tampa Bay in the opener, the Cowboys have rattled off four straight victories and appear to be getting better with each performance. Most recently, Dallas dismantled an unbeaten Carolina Panthers team and then embarrassed the New York Giants in a 44-20 finale last Sunday. I’ve been saying it for weeks and will continue to echo the sentiment that if the Cowboys’ defense continues to play well, they are among the top teams in the entire league. Needless to say, the Cowboys will get another chance to prove the hype is for real when they travel into Foxborough as 4 point favorites against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

Following two straight losses to New Orleans and Tampa Bay, the Patriots needed a come-from-behind victory against the hapless Houston Texans. Personally, I thought the Patriots’ defense would stifle the Texans’ offense that is currently relying upon the arm of backup QB David Mills. Mills had played poorly in recent weeks but managed to dissect the New England defense by hitting 21 of 29 passing for 312 yards with three touchdowns. In many ways, it was the worst defensive effort we have seen from the Patriots in recent memory and not exactly the confidence-building performance that you want going into a match-up against one of the most balanced and potent offenses in the NFL. Still, oddsmakers must believe that the Patriots will regroup as they are just 4 point underdogs against a red hot Cowboys team.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in the last five games.
  • The Cowboys have hit the “over” in four of the last five games
  • The Cowboys are just 3-10 SU over the previous 13 games on the road
  • The Cowboys are 0-6 SU in the last six games against the Patriots
  • The Patriots are 3-6 ATS in the last nine games
  • The Patriots are 3-6 SU in the last nine games
  • The Patriots are 1-4 SU in the last five games at home
  • The Patriots have hit the “under” in four of the previous five games
  • The “under” has cashed in the previous five meetings between the Cowboys and Patriots

More Picks: Get Jay’s Vikings at Panthers Analysis Plus Pick to Bet >>>

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Analysis

As a guy that has watched every snap between both teams this season, I am genuinely confused by the 4 point betting spread. The Cowboys’ defense seems to be getting better with each performance and currently ranks 2nd in the NFL with 12 takeaways. CB Trevon Diggs recorded his 6th interception of the season, last week and even CB Anthony Brown joined the action with a pick-six in the 24 point thumping over the Giants. For New England, they are not necessarily doing a lot of great things on the offensive side of the football. Rookie QB Mac Jones tossed five touchdown passes with five interceptions. Leading running back Damien Harris is battling injuries and is considered day to day. Meanwhile, I don’t even think we need to point out the fact that this Patriots offense’ lacks a go-to guy in the passing attack.

The point I am trying to make is that this match-up is not exactly daunting for the Dallas defense. The best way to beat the Cowboys or to keep it within the spread is to attack their defense which has historically been the weak point of the team. I just don’t see New England being able to do that this weekend, especially if Harris is forced to sit. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense looks to be in perfect form. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has averaged over 100 yards with five total touchdowns in the last three games. QB Dak Prescott is putting up massive numbers with 1,368 passing yards that have totaled 13 touchdowns and three picks. I would also add that the passing attack has been extremely balanced. Everyone is aware of the receiving threats of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has done a tremendous job of utilizing the tight ends and tailbacks in the receiving game as well. This offense just has so many weapons that they are nearly impossible to defend, and I think they are worth backing until we see otherwise. With a mere 4 point betting spread, I will die on the hill that is Dallas -4 against New England.

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