Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, August 13, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium (NFL Network)
Every August we get a handful of preseason games where the storyline is so much bigger than the football. This is one of them.
Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old, entering his second and final season as the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh, and has already said this is his last year in the NFL. Mike McCarthy is entering his first year as the Steelers head coach after spending 2020-2025 in Dallas. The two of them spent 13 years together in Green Bay from 2006 to 2018 and won Super Bowl XLV. Now they’re both on the opposite sideline from the Packers for the first time in a Pittsburgh uniform.
You couldn’t script this one better.
The books have hung Pittsburgh at -1.5 with a total of 37.5. Not exactly a screaming line, but the market is being cautious for a reason. Nobody knows exactly how much Rodgers is going to play, and that uncertainty is holding this total in check.
Here’s what we do know.
Rodgers told The Athletic that McCarthy has asked him to play 30 to 40 snaps in each of the first two preseason games — against his two former teams, the Packers and the Jets. Rodgers’ response was essentially “if he wants me to play, I’ll play, but I’m not saying I want to.” McCarthy has since walked it back a little, saying no final decision until the day of the game. That’s coach-speak. When your head coach is publicly asking you to play 30 snaps against the team you spent 18 seasons with, in a stadium full of Pittsburgh fans who want to see you gun for revenge? You play.
Thirty to 40 snaps from a starting quarterback in a preseason game is enormous. Most starters take a series or two and hit the showers. Rodgers is looking at essentially a full first half of quality play, and Green Bay knows that, which means Matt LaFleur is at least considering giving his own starters some run to match.
Two starting offenses on the field means points on the board.
The coaching histories support the Over as well. McCarthy has always been a coach who takes preseason more seriously than most. His career preseason record on totals sits at 40-32, hitting the Over 55.6% of the time. Broken down by stop: Green Bay from 2006-2018 was 29-23 to the Over, and Dallas from 2020-2025 was 9-7 to the Over. Two different stops, same tendency. He wants his teams throwing the ball and putting up points in August.
Matt LaFleur has been more conservative in preseason play, but with Jordan Love still trying to establish himself and a Packers offense that lost some pieces this offseason, LaFleur has reason to give his first-team offense some real reps against a legitimate defense.
Add in the emotional side of it. McCarthy against his old team. Rodgers against his old team. In Pittsburgh, in front of a home crowd that’s going to be losing their mind if Rodgers actually takes the field. The Steelers are going to want to look sharp, and Rodgers is going to want to remind Green Bay what they let walk out the door.
That’s not a spot that ends 13-10.
The line has moved slightly. It opened at 37.5 across most books, and DraftKings has been posting 36.5 at times, which suggests some sharper money has come in on the Under. I don’t hate that action — anytime a preseason total starts to drop, you have to at least consider that professional bettors know something about playing time you don’t.
But in this case, I think the sharps are wrong. The Rodgers factor is too large. Even if he only plays 25 snaps instead of 40, that’s still enough to move the needle.
I looked at the side too. Steelers -1.5 at home with Rodgers on the field is a legitimate consideration, but it’s a small enough spread that one bad backup series can flip it. I’ll pass on the side and take the play with the cleaner path.
The Pick: Packers/Steelers Over 37.5
