Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date/Time: Sunday, October 15, 2017 at 4:25 P.M. EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Pit +4/KC -4
Over/Under Total: 46
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs will meet in a rematch of the 2016 playoffs in which the Steelers knocked out the Chiefs by a score of 18-16. The Chiefs remained undefeated both SU and ATS with an impressive 42-34 week 5 win in Houston. The game was not as close as the score indicated as Houston tacked on 2 late touchdowns to make the score look close. Pittsburgh was surprised by the Jacksonville Jaguars as their offensive struggles continued and Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions. The high powered Steeler offense has been averaging under 20 points a game through the first 5 games while the Chiefs have been averaging almost 33 points per game.
The Steelers main weapons have been held in check so far this year. QB Ben Roethlisberger, who hinted at retirement during the offseason, has struggled with only 6 touchdowns while throwing 7 interceptions. RB LeVeon Bell has 371 yards rushing but only 144 receiving so far through the first 5 games. WR Antonio Bell has gained 545 yard receiving but only found the end zone once so far in 2017.
Chiefs QB Alex Smith is off to a great start to what could possibly be his last year in Kansas City. Smith has thrown for 1,391 yards completing 76% of his passes. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and has not yet been intercepted. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt, who was not expected to be a starter this season until Spencer Ware went down with a season ending injury, has been off to an amazing start. Hunt leads the NFL in rushing with 609 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns and has added another 2 touchdowns and 166 yards receiving. The receiving game is led by Tyreek Hill who has big play ability with his amazing speed. Hill has 356 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns. TE Travis Kelce has also chipped in with 353 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh has rushed for 3.5 yards against teams that average 3.9 yards per attempt. They have passed for 6.2 yards per attempt against teams that average 6.5 yards. Overall they have been below average as they have averaged 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up an average of 5.3 yards per play.
This is not your normal conservative Kansas City offense as they have proven to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL so far in 2017. Kansas City has rushed for 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 4.4 yards per play. They have passed for 8.2 yards per attempt against teams that average 7.3 yards per attempt. Overall they are averaging 7.0 yards per play against teams that average giving up 6.1 yards per play.
On defense, Pittsburgh has given up 5.0 yards rushing against teams that average 4.3 yards. In the passing game they have given up 4.6 yards per attempt against teams that average 6.0 yards. Overall they have given up 4.8 yards per play against teams that average 5.2 yards.
The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run as the defense has given up 4.6 yards per rush against teams that average 4.3 yards. In passing the Chiefs have given up 7.0 yards per attempt against teams that average 7.3 yards. Overall the defense has given up 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards.
Jerbeek’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Chiefs have been on fire on offense and I think that continues here. The Chiefs defense has given up yards rushing and I think the Steeler offense is going to have to score to keep up. I look for this to be a very high scoring game and see the Chiefs winning 31-28. My recommendation is to play over the total of 46.