Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date and Time: Monday, November 17, 8:30pm EST
Where: LP Field – Nashville, TN
TV: ESPN
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: PIT -6/TEN +6
Over/Under Total: 47
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This week marks the 11th week of NFL football. Boy does the time fly once a season gets kicked off. This Monday night we will have an AFC showdown when the Pittsburgh Steelers head into Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. This is not the “sexiest” of match-ups, but it is a big game for Pittsburgh who is trying to get hot and make a playoff run. The Steelers come into this game at 6-4 overall and the Titans will play hot with a lousy 2-7 record in 2014.
The line for this game opens with the Steelers as a six point road favorite of the Titans. Of course this seems pretty reasonable seeing as how the Steelers have won three of their last four games, and the Titans have dropped seven of their last eight. The total points have been set to 47 for this match-up. 73% of the action has already been placed on the Steelers in this game. I think we need to take a deeper look at this before we find ourselves falling for the trap.
Pittsburgh is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the New York Jets, but the two games before that, the Steelers looked unstoppable. Ben Roethlisberger had the best two game run of his great career during those two games, but the loss to the Jets just deflated all of the momentum these guys had going. Pittsburgh is still second place in the AFC North and have a legit shot to still win the division. Statistically, the Steelers are among the NFLs top teams. They have the 4th best passing attack in the league and they rank 15th in rushing. The defense has done pretty well ranking in the upper half of the league in both run defense and passing defense. The key to this game is to go into Tennessee and not get out to a slow start. A few times this year, Pittsburgh has allowed themselves to start slow and get themselves down early. If they want to go into Nashville and get the win and the cover, they need to start fast and finish strong.
The Tennessee Titans are a bad team. When all is said and done, they may be seeing themselves getting a top two or three pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Losers of seven of their last eight, the Titans just cannot seem to get any momentum going. They have gone to rookie QB, Zach Mettenberger, and he is still learning the game as he goes along. The only true strength the Titans can claim is that they have a top ten pass defense, but that is it. Their offense is among the worst in the NFL. Ranked just 27th in passing with 211 yards a game, and averaging less than 100 yards a game on the ground, this offense struggles. The key to this game is very simple. Tennessee needs to slow down the Pittsburgh offense. If the Titans take notes and watch the New York Jets game plan against these guys, they may have a little success. If Tennessee can keep this game in the 20s, I see them having a shot to cover the six, or maybe even pull the upset for win number three.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:One thing I try to explain to everyone is that this is professional football. Whether you are 6-0 or 0-6, you are all professional/paid athletes. Of course in the NFL, there are your good teams and your bad teams, but take it from any former NFL player or coach. The hardest thing to do in the NFL is get a win on the road, no matter who you play. Pittsburgh is a prime example of that just this past week. Seeing as how the Steelers have had their suspect moments, the Titans are a hungry team, and over 70% of gamblers are all over Pittsburgh, I am going to do the smart thing and take the Titans. Will Tennessee win? I dont know. But I like the fact I am getting six points at home on a Monday night. PICK THE TENNESSEE TITANS +6
