San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Total Pick

by | Jan 24, 2023 | nfl

San Francisco 49ers (15-4 SU, 11-6 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 SU, 9-9 ATS)
NFC Championship Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 29th, 2023. 3:00 PM (EST)

Where: Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: SF +2.5/PHI -2.5
Moneyline: SF +110/PHI -130
Total: 46.5

The Philadelphia Eagles will have the luxury of hosting their first NFC Championship Game since 2017, which was the year they went on to win Super Bowl LII. Armed with the best record in the NFL, the Eagles are slight 2.5-point favorites to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy. Last week, Philadelphia blasted the New York Giants 38-7 in the biggest blowout of the playoffs thus far. The Eagles have been among the most dominant teams in the NFL this season, with an explosive offense led by QB Jalen Hurts. However, the competition will be much tougher this week when the San Francisco 49ers roll into Lincoln Financial Stadium riding a 12-game winning streak and fresh on the heels of a hard-fought 19-12 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

For San Francisco, it has been a roller-coaster type of season. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has been dealt several blows at the most important position on the field. After starting the year with QB Trey Lance, the 49ers were forced to turn back to QB Jimmy Garappolo following a season-ending ankle injury. Garappolo was 3-3 SU through the first three games but started playing really well after the midpoint of the season before going down with a broken foot. Since then, Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy has become the Cinderella Story of the NFL season. The former last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has stepped into the 49ers’ offense and played well, compiling a 7-0 record as a starter while passing for 13 touchdowns and just four picks. Purdy and the 49ers’ offense has been backed by the NFL’s best defense which should not go unnoticed, but the offense has also delivered when needed. As a result, the 49ers will carry the slight underdog role into this Sunday’s NFC Championship against an Eagles offense that has averaged nearly 30 points per game throughout the year.

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NFC Championship Betting Total

Despite the popularity of both offenses ahead of this week’s NFC title showdown, this game will also feature two of the best defenses in the NFL with a 46.5 betting total. I mentioned above that the 49ers own the best defense in the NFL, led by DE Nick Bosa, who led the league with 18.5 sacks in the regular season. As a group, San Francisco’s defense has been downright impressive, which has been a staple of the Shanahan regime. During the 49ers’ 12-game winning streak, only twice has an opponent scored more than 17 points, and that includes holding a potent Cowboys’ offense to just 12 points in last week’s win. Obviously, this week’s challenge against the elusive threat of QB Jalen Hurts will be difficult, but if you look at things strictly from a personnel standpoint; San Francisco matches up well against the rest of Philadelphia’s playmakers in receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Not to mention, the 49ers’ ability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks is among the best in the league as well. As a result, I think that is a recipe to make things much more difficult for the high-flying Eagles.

On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia perhaps has one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. The majority of the success this season has been credited to QB Jalen Hurts who has posted phenomenal numbers with 3,700 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 6 picks and another 700 plus rushing yards with 13 touchdowns in the regular season. With that said, Philadelphia’s defense deserves a ton of credit as well. Philadelphia’s defense has held opponents to just 14 points per game over the last eight contests. The challenge this week for Philadelphia will be slowing the 49ers’ rushing attack, which is led by RB Christian McCaffrey and aided by WR Deebo Samuel. Despite the strong play of QB Brock Purdy, this 49ers’ offense relies heavily on the run game to fuel their offense, and that will be a challenge against this Philadelphia defense.

More Picks: Get Jay’s AFC Championship game analysis & O/U bet >>>

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in the last ten games
  • San Francisco is 12-0 SU in the last 12 games
  • San Francisco is 9-0 ATS in the last nine games against NFC opponents
  • San Francisco has hit the “over” in four of the last five games
  • San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in the last ten games on the road at Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in the last five games
  • Philadelphia is 15-3 SU on the year
  • Philadelphia is 8-2 SU on the season at home
  • Philadelphia has hit the “under” in four of the last five games
  • Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings against San Francisco

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Total Prediction

As described above, I believe this will be a difficult match-up for both offenses. In the 49ers’ toughest match-ups against opposing potent offenses, Shanahan has consistently deployed heavy-running game plans to limit their opponents’ time of possession. I expect that type of strategy again this week which will keep the clock running. I would also argue that the Eagles’ defense has helped push the “under” in four of their last five games and will hold their side of the battle. When you combine the San Francisco probable game script with the underrated Philadelphia defense, I think this is a strong play for the “under.”

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 46.5