San Francisco 49ers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS)
NFL Week 2
Date/Time: September 20th, 1:00 PM E
Where: Heinz Field
TV: FOX
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, jhsportsline.com
Point Spread: SF +5/PIT -5
Over/Under Total: 45
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With 10 days to prepare, the Pittsburgh Steelers play their home opener after losing last Thursday against the Patriots. A late Touchdown pass closed the gap to seven. The line closed at 7.5 at a few books when the game started, but was not readily available unless you bought the half point. It was a solid push and that is reflected in the Steelers’ against-the-spread record. Even though the Steelers lost 28-21, they outgained the Patriots by 103 yards. New England lost the stats by a 464-to-361 margin, proving the Steelers offense looks dynamic. When Le’veon Bell and Martavis Bryant return, it might be the most complete offense in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Minnesota Vikings 20-3 as 2-point Monday night home underdogs. The 49ers looked like a team on a mission. They outgained the Steelers 395-to-248 and possessed the ball for 33 minutes. Carlos Hyde looks like he can handle the job, rushing for a career-high 168 yards on 26 carries, and lets not forget two touchdowns. The public was all over the road chalk by nearly 70% and the “sharps” were all over the home underdog. The Books did quite well on Monday Night Football as both public teams (Eagles & Vikings) lost straight up. Still, favorites went 9-6-1 ATS on opening Week. Last year in Week one, the underdogs did quite well. Lets see if more underdogs cash this week as the odds-makers adjust their power rankings.
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The Steelers played the defending Super Bowl Champions tough in a hostile environment. This line should be closer to 7 so if you like the home team jump on them now.
I think both teams have some deficiencies in the secondary and could make for a nice Over play. Always check the weather for Heavy Rain, Snow/Wind when playing Totals. I think the big key for me is that the Steelers have extra time to prepare. Mike Tomlin usually bounces back strong with extra time to game plan. The Steelers have enjoyed a lot of success at home when playing the NFC West. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home against NFC West foes in his career. Pittsburgh has scored 30 or more points in five of their last six home games. Even if the Steelers don’t reach 30 points, it’s still possible they will cover the 5-point spread.
I saved the best for last. The 49ers have to travel to the East Coast for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game, while having played a late tilt on Monday Night Football. The 49ers are just 2-8 ATS as underdogs after playing on Monday Night Football.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Pittsburgh Steelers -5 and Over 45
This line is low. I think it’s heading up quickly. This sets up very well for the home team. The 49ers have to travel three time zones off a short Week, to play a pissed off Steelers team with extra time to rest and prepare. San Francisco has a division game on deck against Arizona which only makes this play stronger.
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