Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
Friday, August 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Arrowhead Stadium
Friday night’s preseason finale at Arrowhead has one of the cleaner Under cases on the entire Week 3 board, and the numbers back it up cleanly.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks with a total sitting around 36.5. That spread hasn’t moved since the number opened. The market is comfortable with a small home edge, and both teams’ preseason scoring averages tell you exactly why 36.5 isn’t likely to be threatened.
Let’s start with the confirmed QB rotations.
Patrick Mahomes will not play. According to reporting from Kansas City, “coach Andy Reid isn’t quite ready to commit that he will be playing” for Week 1 of the regular season, but “we know Mahomes won’t be seen on the field for the preseason finale vs. Seattle.” That’s a definitive statement, and it’s consistent with Andy Reid’s historical approach — he traditionally hasn’t played starters in preseason Game 3.
Sam Darnold has been in the same boat all preseason. Seattle’s first-year starter hasn’t played a snap in either of the Seahawks’ first two preseason games. Drew Lock has started both, and if the pattern holds, he’ll start the finale as well. Mike Macdonald is protecting Darnold heading into the regular season the same way Reid is protecting Mahomes.
That leaves us with a game between two backup rotations, and both teams have shown exactly what those rotations produce.
Kansas City is averaging 13.5 points per game in the preseason. They lost 20-12 to the Rams in Week 1 and lost 16-15 to the Buccaneers in Week 2. That’s their eighth straight preseason loss dating back to 2024. Harrison Butker missed a 43-yard field goal at the end of last week’s game that would have won it. The Chiefs’ backup offense simply hasn’t been generating enough sustained drives to put up meaningful points.
Seattle has been even worse. The Seahawks are averaging 11.5 points per game in the preseason. They lost 17-7 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1 and lost 19-16 to the Titans on the road last week. That’s an offense that has produced 7, then 16 points in its two games, both under Drew Lock’s stewardship. Sam Darnold is watching from the sideline, and the backup rotation isn’t going to suddenly find a scoring rhythm against a Chiefs defense that has been solid throughout August.
Combine the two averages, and you’re looking at 25 combined points based on how both teams have actually been playing this preseason. That’s more than 11 points below the current total of 36.5.
The defensive matchup also supports the Under.
Andy Reid’s Chiefs allow just 96 rushing yards per game in this preseason — a full 36 yards fewer than the Seahawks’ average of 132.5 rushing yards allowed per game. That defensive strength against the run is exactly what makes backup-heavy preseason games low-scoring, because when defensive backups can slow down opposing rushing attempts, the entire offensive rhythm breaks down. Seattle isn’t going to establish a run game against this Chiefs defense, and that means their backup quarterbacks are going to face second-and-long more often than the total accounts for.
Special teams add another layer to the Under case. Butker’s missed field goal from 43 yards last week was the difference between a Chiefs win and their eighth straight preseason loss. That’s not the sign of a special teams unit that will help push the total higher through boosted scoring — it’s the sign of a unit still finding its rhythm heading into the regular season.
Injuries are also relevant. Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy remained sidelined at Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder issue and Rashee Rice was just returning to 11-on-11 drills. Neither is likely to play in the finale, which further limits Kansas City’s ability to produce big plays through the air.
The 36.5 total is priced right at the average of what these two teams have shown they can produce. Combined with both starting QBs sitting, both offenses cycling backup rotations, and both defenses positioned to suppress scoring, the value sits squarely on the Under.
I looked at the side too. Chiefs -1.5 at home is defensible — Kansas City has a slight statistical edge across the board, and Reid’s team is trying to snap an eight-game preseason losing streak. But preseason spreads that small can flip on any single garbage-time possession. The Under is where the situational and statistical read line up cleanest.
The Pick: Seahawks/Chiefs Under 36.5
