SNF Pick: Packers vs. Saints Moneyline Bet
Green Bay Packers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
NFL Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, September 27 at 8:20 pm EDT
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Point Spread: GB +3/NO -3 (BAS - Offers -105 sides and totals AND NFL teasers up to 19 points!)
Over/Under Total: 52.5
There is rightfully a lot of focus on the Kansas City-Baltimore matchup on Monday Night, but the Sunday Night tilt is no slouch with a couple of NFC contenders squaring off as the Green Bay Packers head to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Packers have been one of the most impressive teams through two weeks and look like the offensive machine that many thought the Saints were destined to be in 2020. New Orleans looks to right the ship after falling to the Raiders last week, and if what happened in Vegas stays in Vegas, the Saints should be in a good spot to bounce back at home.
Betting on either of these teams has been lucrative over recent seasons, and there are some solid trends at play for both teams ahead of Sunday Night. Green Bay has been a fast-starting team with a 6-1 record against the spread in the last seven September games and has eight ATS wins in the previous ten against teams at .500 or better. The Packers are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven against an NFC opponent. New Orleans has been one of the best in the league going back to last season with a 12-5 mark against the spread in the previous seventeen overall. They are 9-4 ATS in the previous thirteen against the NFC and have been solid after poor outings, going 4-0 against the spread in the last four games following an ATS loss as they did last week. The over/under trends are a bit less evident, but the teams have produced a combined 8-1 mark for the over dating back to late 2019. It was nearly inexplicable to see more than half of the public bets go against the Packers in Week 1, but that trend has reversed since with Green Bay seeing about 65% of the public money through the midweek betting period.
The reports of Rodgers’ demise were greatly exaggerated with #12 leading Green Bay to 505 yards per game and 42.5 points per contest through two weeks. The Packers impressively lead the NFL at 208 rushing yards per game, so New Orleans will not just be able to focus on playing the pass. Rodgers has completed nearly 68% of his passes and thrown for eight touchdowns without an interception. The other Aaron (Jones) is averaging 6.9 rushing yards per tote and has four touchdowns (three rush, one rec) so far. Davante Adams (17-192-2) leads the team in all receiving categories but left the last game with a bad hamstring and is currently listed as questionable. If he would miss the game, Green Bay appears to be adequate on the outside with Marquez-Valdes Scantling and Allen Lazard both north of 100 receiving yards to this point. MVS is mercurial but unquestionably a big-play threat with a 22.9 yards per catch average. The Packers defense has given up some yardage, but this unit is based on individual efforts at times, and that has worked with Za’Darius Smith notching a sack in both games, as has Rashan Gary.
Whichever Way the Brees Blows
Green Bay goes as Rodgers goes, and the same can be said for New Orleans as they looked off last week as Drew Brees was a bit uneven. Brees’ 64% completion rate isn’t bad, but it is off of the pace he has put up in recent seasons, and the running game has not been there to support him. Alvin Kamara has four touchdowns but has done most of his damage as a receiver, only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Latavius Murray is at 3.4 yards per rush, and the run game sits at 25th in the league. The passing game has been without Michael Thomas, who is battling an ankle injury, and he could miss this contest with some reports stating he will be out until October. No Saints receiver outside of Kamara has more than seven catches in Thomas’ absence, with Kamara the only pass-catcher to hit the 100-yard mark thus far. Green Bay has been rather average on defense with mid-pack ranks in yards allowed, and 27.5 points surrendered per game, but there is a question surrounding the Saints’ ability to take advantage.
Take the Points (and the upset if you want)
It has been a while since Rodgers has looked this good, and I think he is one of the most dependable players in the game when he is hot. He never turns it over and has Aaron Jones to lean on even if Davante Adams misses this game. New Orleans has been solid against the run, but average-at-best against the pass and near the bottom in points allowed, so I’m looking for another big day for Green Bay’s offense. With points on the board and a lack of run game success so far, New Orleans will have to turn to the pass at some point. That is where Green Bay wants you to be so both the Smith brothers can rush, and the talented Packer secondary can make plays. Without Michael Thomas, I don’t think there are enough playmakers on the field for Green Bay to get nervous about. I really like the money line here for Green Bay as I believe they get a 30-27 win.