Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Thursday, August 27, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Highmark Stadium
Thursday night’s preseason finale at the new Highmark Stadium has meaningful line movement backing one side, and the situational factors all align in the same direction.
The Bills are 3-point home favorites over the Steelers with a total of 35.5. This game opened with Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite. Since then, the spread has moved a full point and a half toward the Bills. Sharp money has been on Buffalo since the number opened, and once you look at the two teams’ preseason performances and the confirmed backup QB rotations, the reasoning holds up.
Let’s start with what has happened in preseason so far.
Buffalo is undefeated at 2-0 in the preseason and has covered the spread in both games. The Bills won their opener by double digits at home against Carolina, then went on the road last Saturday and dismantled the Browns 31-7 while catching 2.5 points. What matters about that Browns game is that Josh Allen didn’t play — the Bills put up 31 points and covered a road spread without their starting quarterback. That’s a testament to the depth Joe Brady has assembled in his first year as Buffalo’s head coach after being promoted from offensive coordinator following Sean McDermott’s dismissal.
The Steelers, by contrast, are 1-1 in preseason and coming off a home game they’d like to forget. Last Friday, Pittsburgh was shut out 17-0 by the Jets while laying 2 points at Acrisure Stadium. That’s the kind of preseason game where nothing goes right — backup QBs Will Howard and rookie Drew Allar couldn’t move the offense, the offensive line struggled with protection, and the game got out of hand quickly. Mike McCarthy, in his first year as Steelers head coach after Mike Tomlin stepped down following 19 seasons, watched his offense produce zero points.
Now the confirmed QB rotations for Thursday.
Both starting quarterbacks are sitting. Josh Allen will not play — Joe Brady confirmed that this week. Aaron Rodgers, at 42 years old and playing what he’s called with “zero debate” his final NFL season, hasn’t played in any preseason game so far and won’t be starting the finale either. McCarthy has hinted that even backup Mason Rudolph won’t take the field. That means Pittsburgh’s offense will run entirely through Will Howard and rookie Drew Allar, the same two quarterbacks who couldn’t score a point against the Jets a week ago.
Buffalo, meanwhile, will play “some starters,” according to Brady. That’s a critical distinction. The Bills will have some of their proven veteran talent on the field for at least the opening series, while the Steelers are running out roster-bubble backups from the jump. The talent gap in the first quarter alone should be significant.
The home-field factor matters too. This is the first night game at the new Highmark Stadium, and the Bills organization has been building this up as a major moment for the franchise and fan base. The crowd is going to be loud, energetic, and expecting a strong performance from their team. That kind of environment tends to help home teams in preseason games where every roster spot decision matters.
Buffalo’s 2025 offensive strengths are worth noting even without Allen. The Bills’ 30 rushing touchdowns in the 2025 regular season were the most in the NFL. Their 1,793 fourth-quarter yards were also the most in the league. This is an offensive system built on physicality and finishing games, and even with backup QBs at the helm, that identity carries over. James Cook and the Bills’ backfield are going to run behind a solid offensive line against a Steelers defense that ranked 17th in points allowed last year but has been vulnerable to run-heavy attacks in preseason.
The 3-point spread reflects the market catching up to the reality that Buffalo has been the better team in preseason and has more depth for Thursday’s game. Steelers backup QB struggles combined with a Bills offense that just scored 31 in the previous week points squarely to a comfortable cover.
I looked at the total too. The 35.5 has been steady since open, which is worth noting. There’s a case for the Under given both starting QBs sitting and Pittsburgh’s Week 2 offensive shutout, but Buffalo’s ability to score points even without Allen makes the Under a less confident play. The side has the clearer signal from the line movement.
The Pick: Buffalo Bills -3
