Super Bowl LVI Total Prediction

by | Last updated Feb 9, 2022 | nfl

Los Angeles Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS)

Super Bowl LVI Betting Prediction

Date/Time: Sunday February 13th, 2022. 6:30PM (EST)

Where: SOFI Stadium Inglewood, CA


Betting Odds:

Point Spread:LAR -4/CIN +4 (Get the best sportsbook bonus >>> 100% up to $1000!)

Total: 48.5

The Los Angeles Rams will have the privilege of defending their home turf when they collide with the Cincinnati Bengals for Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium. Ironically, it is the 2nd straight season that a Super Bowl contender participated on home soil. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl inside their own stadium, and the Rams will have the unique opportunity to replicate that feat this Sunday. The Rams are currently listed as 4 point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals team that has become a Cinderella-type story featuring covers in all three playoff games and outright victories as underdogs against the Titans and Chiefs to earn their Super Bowl ticket.

In this intriguing Super Bowl LVI match-up, there are many potential outcomes that could impact the spread scenario. Though the Rams are 4 point favorites, QB Matt Stafford has been a liability at times in big games this season. The Rams star-studded offense was held to just 7 points through 3 quarters of football in the NFC Championship before a late-game rally sealed the 20-17 victory over the 49ers. In fact, I would argue that both teams produce the perception that this will be an offensive battle. Bengals QB Joe Burrow appears to be the NFL’s next biggest star combined with an offense that produces the likes of receivers Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and RB Joe Mixon.

Meanwhile, the Rams have the notorious talent of WR Cooper Kupp, who just set the NFL’s highest receiving mark in history. Along with Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr and a talented backfield give the Rams plenty of varying ways to attack opposing defenses. However, lost in all of the offensive star power is the fact this game will feature two defenses that are playing extremely well. The Rams have given up 17 points or less in 3 of their last four games, with the lone exception coming in the 30-27 victory over Tom Brady and the defending champs. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense has been rock solid in the playoffs allowing point totals of 19, 16, and 24 to the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs. As we continue to break down this match-up, I will explain reasons that I believe bettors should consider the “under” as one of the sharpest bets for Sunday’s marquee event.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Total Trends

  • The Bengals have hit the “under” in four of the last five games
  • The Bengals and Rams have hit the “under” in four of the last five games against each other
  • The Rams have hit the “under” in six of the last seven games inside SoFi Stadium
  • The “under” has chased in each of the last three Super Bowl match-ups
  • The all-time over/under record for the Super Bowl is 26-28 (O/U ratio)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Total Analysis

When I break down this Super Bowl LVI from a personnel and scheme standpoint, I really like the way the Rams match-up defensively against the Bengals offense. DE Aaron Donald remains one of the most disruptive pass-rush threats in the NFL, and the Rams’ secondary has the talent to provide the Bengals one of their toughest match-ups to date. I would expect CB Jalen Ramsey will draw a lot of match-ups against Bengals WR Jamar Chase. Despite being a rookie, Chase remains the Bengals’ biggest offensive threat in the passing game. While there may be scenarios where Ramsey does not follow Chase into the slot, I would not rule out quick adjustments if Chase starts getting peppered with targets. Needless to say, the Rams will likely try to take away the Bengals #1 target, and their pass-rush will force Burrow to get rid of the ball quickly.

While WR Tee Higgins may inherit more opportunities as a result of the match-up, I don’t believe Higgins gives the Bengals the big play threats they will need to constantly move the football. For clarity, I am really banking on the Rams pass-rush in this analysis, and I believe that is justified with how horrific the Bengals OL has performed throughout the season. With that narrative in mind, I find this match-up extremely difficult for Cincinnati, where they will likely concede more possessions than most will expect and/or have to settle for field goals more so than touchdowns.

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For the Rams’ offense, the match-up is not as daunting but is not exactly a slam dunk either. The one thing that the Bengals have done well this season is limiting opponents’ success on the ground. When the Rams are able to run the football, their offense is able to open the playbook with full confidence. RB Sony Michel had several weeks of tough running between the tackles that helped the Rams towards the 2nd half of the season. RB Cam Akers’ return has not provided the rushing numbers that Rams fans would like to see, but Akers remains a playmaker. I’m not convinced that Head Coach Sean McVay will invest heavily in the run game, especially with the way Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham have been performing. However, I do think the Bengals’ defense could make things interesting if they are able to capitalize on putting Stafford in obvious passing situations and getting some pressure on the Rams QB.

Jay’s Pick: Big fan of the under 48.5 here. I believe the match-ups will dictate a more intense defensive battle than most fans expect. Note: Add to your “Big Game” experience by live betting the Super Bowl at the web’s best live wagering platform: Bovada Sportsbook! They’ll give you a 50% real cash bonus up to $250, your credit card WILL work there for deposits, they offer rebates on all your bets; win lose or draw plus you can bet on horses and play casino games! Lastly, they pay fast! A must have in your sports betting arsenal! Click here to check them out!