Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) vs San Francisco 49’ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Super Bowl XLVII (47)
Date and Time: Sunday February 3rd, 2013 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
By TimmieB, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Balt +4/SF -4
Over/Under Total: 48.5
So you’ve heard that ‘Prop Bets’ (Proposition Bets) are a sucker’s bet! “It’s a waste of money”, “No one ever wins Prop Bets”, we’ve all heard the same junk about Prop Bets. But look at it this way: Giants-Pats last year, Super Bowl 46, “Any Team scores a safety anytime” bet went out at +2500 odds and someone got paid on a two-dollar chance. Same Super Bowl: “First Score is a Safety” carrying +10000 odds and another ‘Sucker’ got paid. And one more time: “Giants score very first score of game for safety” went out at around +18000 and another ‘Sucker’ is dancing to the bank! Do you think that’s a fluke? How about the Ravens walking into Denver and tying Peyton Manning’s Broncos with a last minute, Flacco- Heave-Ho on a 3rd and 3 from the Ravens 30 yard-line with 31 seconds left and ZERO timeouts! After that, the Ravens kick a field goal in double OT to win! If you played an OT win Prop Bet you definitely made some cash.
Don’t be fooled; there can be some great values found in Prop Bets and you’re not a Sucker for playing them. And with most online sportsbooks, you can even suggest your particular ‘niche’ Prop Bet in an email such as “Total number of tackles for Ray Lewis” or “Over/Under Total field goal tries by 49ers in the first half” and the Sports Book will be open to give odds-if they think it’ll make money. Most people play the Spread or the Over/Under because they’re used to it and: “Everyone else does it!” Maybe, this year, instead of gripping your chair and hoping your team can hold on and cover, you might be able to relax knowing that Randy Moss already caught a touchdown pass in the first half and you’ll make money. Let’s look at some of the better Prop Bets being offered for this Super Bowl (47).
For bettors looking at the Ravens to Win and the total being Under, a +700 two-dollar bet on Ray Lewis to be the game’s MVP is pretty tempting (net $140)! Let’s face it: Love him or hate him, this is Ray’s last game. If he is anywhere near the top in tackles, just on his team, and forces a turnover or makes just one, single outstanding play, those voting for the MVP (20% fan vote, 80% Broadcasters and Writers) will give him the Award. Traditionally, the winning team has gotten the Super Bowl MVP every year except one. If you’re a San Fran bettor and playing the OVER, Kaepernick is +135 for the award and the Favorite. But look at it this way: If you take San Fran SU you’re right at -175 and the Over is -115! If you think Kaepernick is the key then, after all the publicity he’s gotten recently, Kaepernick at +135 gives you much better odds to make some loot. If Ed Reed’s as good as Bill Belichick thinks (called Reed the best safety ever in the NFL!) and Jim Harbough doesn’t get off the gas with his passing attack after 2 or 3 picks, then a two or three interception Game (Reed’s specialty) probably will get him the MVP at +6600! If it’s ‘Ground and Pound’Gore is sitting at +650 and Ray Rice is at +900. And, in the event a Fluke happens (Kaepernick gets hurt), Alex Smith is hanging around at +10000 for game MVP. Those are some fantastic odds using a common sense approach.
If you think San Fran will dominate then don’t play the Spread. Take a “Double Chance” bet at +135 for San Francisco to lead at halftime and lead at the end of the game; you’ll make more money that way than playing the spread line. If you think the game might go into OT then a +800 is on your side. A ‘Ground and Pound’ game usually gets rushing touchdowns so you might consider a “First Scorer” bet (Player to score first touchdown) with Gore at +600, Rice at +700, Crabtree at +750, Boldin at +900 and the Baltimore Ravens defense at +2500. But let’s say Frank Gore breaks out on a 45 plus yard run down to the Ravens 3 yard line. Gore is spent, comes out, LaMichael James comes in “BadaBoom”: touchdown James off right tackle—-+2200 for first touchdown scorer!
Thinking how each coach will coach and the Players involved and you might find a very good coach and gambler, Jim Harbough, throwing an open drive ‘GO Route’ to Randy Moss and there it is: Moss +1600. Tons of value can be cashed-in on during the Super Bowl. Think about the teams, the coaches their strategies then consider your wife’s patience, your patience and make a play accordingly. If you know San Fran will dominate then play the Prop Bet “Double Chance” and make 60% more money than simply playing the Spread. It’s all about cashing Benjamins and only ‘Suckers’ won’t look at the possibilities that Prop Bets offer. I also have this sneaking suspicion that the bad rap that Prop Bets get is from Bookies and Sports Books that hope you won’t look at the numbers and trends to gain an Edge over them. Have a great Super Bowl! As for me, TimmyB, I’m going with Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta as ‘First Touchdown Scorers’ at +900 for both and Ray Lewis for MVP. Good Luck!
TimmieB’s Prop Bet Pick: Ray Lewis Game MVP and Vernon Davis/Dennis Pitta 1st Touchdown Scorers. You can find all of these proposition wagers and more at one of the web’s best sportsbooks: GTBets (They offer Predictem readers a “deposit $100 and get $100 free bonus!)
Additional NFL Football Betting Previews