Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Pick 11/3/19

by | Oct 31, 2019 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5, 2-5 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-2, 3-5 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 4:05 PM ET
Where: CenturyLink Field – Seattle, WA
TV: FOX

Point Spread: TB +6.5 / SEA -6.5 (Bovada)
Total: 52

Power Ratings: Seattle -4

Takeaways From Week Eight

The Buccaneers come into this game riding a three-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread. Most recently, Tampa Bay was in action last Sunday when they squared off with the Tennessee Titans in Music City. The Titans would narrowly escape the Buccaneers as a two-point favorite when they emerged victorious 27-23.

The Seahawks step into this contest off a 27-20 win over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday. Seattle was unable to produce a cover for takers as they closed as a 7.5-point favorite at kick-off. Seattle has now failed to green up in two consecutive matches.

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How the Public is Betting the Tampa Bay-Seattle Game

So far, the public has been all Seattle as 75% of the consensus like the Seahawks here laying the points. As a result, we have seen the Seabirds spotting an extra half-point to a full point compared to their opening price of -5.5 or -6 depending on where you shop around.

The Historicals

The Bucs have been a perpetual thorn in Seattle’s side as they have won four of the last five contests between these two combatants. Tampa Bay and Seattle last met in 2016, where the Bucs staged a 14-5 upset of the visiting Seahawks, closing as a five-point home underdog.

Betting Trends

The Bucs have been a cash-cow in this series as of late as they have gone 4-0 ATS in the previous four contests between both parties. For “Over/Under” takers, the Under has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two sides.

Injury Concerns

As we have highlighted previously, Seahawks Wide Receiver Golden Tate remains suspended until Week Five due to violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancement Substances policy. For the Bucs, there are no key players that will be missing from their roles due to injuries or suspensions, heading into this contest.

Why We Like The Buccaneers To Cover

From the perspective of match-ups, the run-happy Seahawks can find their ninth-ranked rushing offense (130 yards per game) stymied by the NFL’s best rushing defense in Tampa Bay who gives up just 68.6 rushing yards against per game. This is especially disconcerting for Seahawks Quarterback Russell Wilson, who is known as a mobile threat that can extend plays. He may very well find himself running into a brick wall and as a result, stall Seattle’s offensive operations. This is a grim prospect for the Hawks. Moreover, the Buccaneers are priced at an infamous underdog-friendly number that, as mentioned previously, has been associated with the dog staging an upset outright. Despite the superior body of work this season in terms of wins and losses, the market is reluctant to allow Seattle to give the Bucs a touchdown. However, in looking under the hood, a rare phenomenon has occurred this season in Tampa Bay being winless at home (0-3) and Seattle being perfect on the road (4-0). Tampa is 2-2 on the road, and Seattle is 2-2 at home. This, in essence, makes this contest a toss-up game. By virtue of this narrative alone, the Bucs offer a tremendous upside with nearly a converted touchdown to work with. Embellishing upon this principle, some other betting sites would suggest that Seattle is giving Tampa Bay too many points here. This is yet another reason to take an in-depth look at Tampa Bay.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5

In addition to the aforementioned, the Buccaneers own an emotional edge heading into this contest. A prime coaching point will undoubtedly be that Tampa has had Seattle’s number as of late and does not deserve to be the underdog in this match, as a result. I can see Tampa Bay players buying into this narrative. After all, we saw Tampa Bay priced in a similar spot in Week Two when it ventured on the road to Carolina and staged an outright upset of the Panthers in Charlotte. Given the fact that Tampa has failed to cover as a three-point dog and then as a two-point underdog for two consecutive games after that leading up to this fixture, the market is ripe for the Bucs to be taking back enhanced points in a favorable situation for Tampa Bay to take advantage of. By no means is an upset out of the question. However, I suggest taking the conservative approach in this one and snagging likely inflated points.

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