Tennessee Titans(1-2SU,1-2ATS) vsHouston Texans(3-0SU,3-0ATS)
Date/Time:September 30th,1:00PM EST
Where:Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: Ten +12/HOU-12
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An AFC South division duel takes place in the Lone Star State when the 3-0 Houston Texans play host to the revitalized 1-2 Tennessee Titans. Houston defeated the Broncos 31-25, as 1-point road dogs last week. They out-gainedDenver by 61 yards thanks in large part toArianFoster and the running game. Peyton Manningtorchedthe Texans pass defense for 330 yardsand two touchdowns. Most of that damage was done when the Texans were up big in the 4thquarter.The Texans have out-gained all three opponents this year by a combined 417 yards. Tennessee defeated the Lions 44-41, as 3.5-point home dogs. They won despite getting out-gained by 146 yards, and have nowbeen out-gained in all three games this year.
Looking at this game on paper makes you think this gamecould be a blowout. Keep in mind though double digitdivisionrival dogs have done very well at the window.I have the TexansNo. 1on my Power Rankings and the Titans are checking in at No. 25. If this game was in December, and both teams were in their current form, the line would be closer to two touchdowns. Maybe the odds-makers are scaling back the chalk due to the awful officiating by the replacement refs. And, it’s not even the refs fault! One interesting note is that home teams are loving the replacements, as home teams are winning at a rate not seen for a very long time. Just look at that Monday Night Football game last week, when they awarded the home team (Seattle) thevictory,even though everyone knows the Packers were screwed.
If you went to the store to buy something and there was 2 items, exactly the same, with one for $1.05 and one for $1.10, which would you buy? The cheaper one of course! So why are you still betting at -110 when you could be betting at -105 odds? Make the switch today! You’ll be so glad that you did! –> 5Dimes.
This game will hinge on the Titans defense. If they can’t get pressure and make ituncomfortablefor MattSchaubit’s going to be a long day. Schaubhas a QB rating of 105.5 through the first three games and has only been sacked two times. Tennessee is allowing 463 yards per game so far while the Texans average 394.7 yards of offense per game. Houston will bring in the 2ndrankeddefense, allowing 255.7 yards per game.The Texans are 3-0 ITS (in the stats) this season and have gone 11-4 ITS in their last 15 games. The offense has tremendous balance withArianFoster & Ben Tateleading the runningattack. Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter have great chemistry withSchauband the passing game.
Houston might try to dominate the game on te ground, as Tennessee is giving up 150.3 rushing yards a contest. The Texans average that same 150.3 yards rushingper game.Tennessee’s opponents are spending a league-high 36:42 on the field, in large part because of an NFL-worst running attack that’s averaging 39.0 yards. Former 2,000-yard runner Chris Johnson has 45 yards on 33 carries this seasonafter finishing with 24 yards in last week’s win. Jake Locker has looked solid in the first three games as he is much improved over last year. The offensive line has done a great job of late. The Titans have done a nice job protecting Locker the last two games, but going three consecutive weeks without allowing a sack could be asking a lot as they face a Texans team that has recorded three sacks in each game.
These two teams have splittheirseason series in four straight years. Last season, each team won on the road and the year before that each team won at home. In 2009, each team won on the road. This line (Houston -12) will be the highest line ever in the series. Jake Locker did not start either game last year but is 1/1 with 12 yards against Houston. The Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. The Over is 9-3 last twelve. Tennessee is 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games following a straight-up win. Houston is 9-1-1 ATS last 11 following a straight-up win.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Tennessee Titans +12. Not really a game to bet. Tennessee scored 44 points last weekand will now play a bigdivisiongame. I am not a fan oflayingdouble digits to a divisiondog. I can see the Texans up by 20 points in thefinalquarter only to have the Titans score a TD for the back-door cover. I will lean to the road dog, but would not besurprisedif the home team won by 25!
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