Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick 12/1/19

by | Nov 27, 2019 | nfl

Tennessee Titans (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN


Point Spread: TEN +2.5 / IND -2.5 (Check out today’s Best Bonus!)

Total: 40.5

Power Ratings: Indianapolis -3

Takeaways From Week 12

The Titans step into this game by way of a rout against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was all academic for Tennessee as they hung 42 points on their divisional counterparts to defeat them by 22 points. As a result, the Titans took their backers to the window, cruising into the pay lane as a 4.5-point favorite. The Titans are now 3-0-1 ATS in their previous four outings overall, and they have won the last their two contests outright.

The Colts come into this game on the heels of a loss to AFC South rival Houston on Thursday Night Football when Indy fell 20-17 in H-Town against the hosting Texans. Though Indianapolis lost the match, they produced a seeing-eye cover closing as a 3.5-point underdog at the time of kick-off. Indianapolis has now covered in two consecutive games.

How the Public is Betting the Tennessee-Indianapolis Game

The line on this game has fallen by half of a point from Indianapolis opening as a three-point favorite despite 62% of the public like the Colts here as the small favorite.

The Historical

These divisional rivals have already met previously this season in September when the Colts traveled to Music City to square off with the Titans. The Colts would stage a 19-17 upset of the Titans to win outright as a three-point underdog. Indianapolis has now won and covered in the last three meetings between both sides.

Betting Trends

Overall, the Favorite has been a commodity in this series as the chalk has covered in five of the last six contests. This historical trends toward the Colts. Corresponding patterns such as Tennessee being 1-7 ATS in the previous eight matches in Indianapolis along with the Titans boding a 3-13 ATS overall in the last six contests between those two sides will further enchant action on the Colts. It is also worth mentioning that the Over is 5-0 ATS in the previous five games that Indianapolis took part in.

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Injury Concerns

Heading into this AFC South clash, the Titans and Colts have not listed emergent injury concerns to key personnel.

Why We Like The Titans To Cover

The Titans and Colts are very much carbon copies of each other in terms of performance portfolio as they have virtually the same ATS record, identical SU records, and they even have the same W-L metrics when they are home (both teams are 4-2 SU in home games) and road (both outfits are 2-3 SU in away fixtures). However, the trends in this series concerning Tennessee’s lack of profitability combined with Indianapolis’ recent supremacy against the Titans positions the Colts to be overvalued. Despite all of the allure that Indianapolis may present overall, the market seems a bit reluctant to believe that Indy will be able to repeat success against the Titans as they are priced at a notorious underdog-friendly number. The 2.5-point spot is engineered to entice action on the favorite under the guise of a cover should the Colts, in this case, win by a field goal. Given how the earlier season result was settled by less than that margin, Indianapolis looks like an apple of play. However, this spot could be nothing more than a carrot dangling at the end of a stick, and so far, the consensus seems poised to bite.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tennessee +125 (Money Line)

I’ll trade away the points here on the Titans and take them outright. The Titans will march into Indianapolis and pull off the upset. This game will likely be settled by a single score in what will be overall a low-scoring affair. Not too long ago, Indianapolis was priced as an 11-point favorite when it hosted the Miami Dolphins, and they went onto lose 16-12. This result is still sticking out in my mind, and it characterizes Indianapolis as a team that can lay an egg any given Sunday. However, their opponent is a better overall team compared to Miami in terms of quality on both sides of the ball, so this one makes it an easy play for me. Tennessee on the Money Line is the call. Bet your Week 13 NFL picks for FREE! by taking advantage of a 100% bonus up to $500 at GTBets!