Total Play: Jaguars vs. Colts Bet

by | Dec 30, 2020 | nfl

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14 SU, 6-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS)

NFL Football Week 17

Date/Time: Sunday January 3rd, 2021. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, IN


Point Spread:JAC +14/IND -14 (GTBets - Double your bet for free! Deposit $100 and get a FREE $100 bet! Deposit $500 and get $500 free added to your betting account! Kick the New Year off right!)

Over/Under Total: 50

Last week, the Indianapolis Colts blew a 17 point lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers which snapped a 3 game winning streak. More importantly, the loss moved the Colts to 10-5 SU and on the outside of the AFC playoff picture. There is a legitimate possibility that the Colts could become the 3rd 11-win team in NFL history to miss the playoffs. The good news for Colts fans is that possibility is slim. While Indianapolis no longer controls their destiny, the Colts have numerous paths to clinch a postseason berth as long as they can get past the NFL’s worst team on Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars as 14 point betting favorites.

If the Colts seal their week 17 victory, they would need just 1 of 3 scenarios to take place. If either Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, Miami loses to Buffalo, or Cleveland loses to Pittsburgh, the Colts will secure a playoff berth. Additionally, the Colts could still win the AFC South since they are currently tied with the Titans at 10-5 SU. While Tennessee holds the tie-breaker, the Colts could clinch the division with a Tennessee loss to Houston and of course a Colts victory over the Jaguars. So while Indianapolis is not exactly in control of their destiny, they are not necessarily in a bad position if they can get the job done on Sunday which seems highly probable. The only kicker is that the Jaguars only victory this season was against the Indianapolis Colts back in week 1.

Jacksonville’s tanking efforts undeniable

I am not much of a conspiracy guy and never really buy into claims of professional teams throwing a game for unforeseen benefits. However, Jacksonville’s administrative actions over the past few weeks have become overwhelmingly obvious that the team has been intentionally tanking in effort to get the #1 pick, AKA Trevor Lawrence, in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars have shut down more players this season than any team in the NFL with 21 players currently listed on the injured reserve. The number has grown every week and mostly for mild reasons.

If further proof is needed, QB Gardner Minshew completed 22 of 29 passing for 226 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 picks in his 2nd game back following a 6 week injury in week 15. The Jaguars head office benched Minshew last week in place of backup trainwreck Mike Glennon who completed just 24 of 37 passing for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 picks in a 41-17 blowout loss to the Bears. The loss officially secured Jacksonville the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While there is reason to believe the Jaguars will be playing for a victory in week 17, I would argue that the damage has already been done. With the excessive number of players on the injured reserve and total collapse in competitiveness over the last 3 games where the average margin of defeat is 23.6 points per game, it is safe to say the Jaguars’ have already put their season in a suitcase as they prepare for 2021.

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Jaguars vs. Colts Betting Analysis

As of mid-week, the Jaguars have not decided who will be behind center this week against the Colts between Glennon and Minshew. If Minshew is not the starting quarterback, something is seriously wrong. Either way, the Jaguars offensive prognosis is not optimistic with RB James Robinson ailing combined with a match-up against one of the NFL’s better defenses. Jacksonville has failed to score more than 17 points in 3 consecutive games and I think that is a pretty fair baseline again this week. The question is what can we expect from the Colts offense and will it be enough to cover the 14 point spread?

The Jaguars inability to generate any passing rush should provide a clean pocket for Colts QB Phillip Rivers who recently passed the 4,000 yard mark on the season. Rivers’ arm strength is still somewhat questionable in his aging years but this is a favorable match-up that should allow him to find open receivers in the intermediate downfield range at a fairly high percentage. I expect WR T.Y Hilton to benefit from the match-up with increasing targets in recent weeks. Hilton’s ability to create space on underneath routes bodes well against the Jaguars defense. Furthermore, the Colts should be able to rely on RB Johnathan Taylor in the heavy ground attack to secure ball control and the pace of the game. Rivers’ turnover issues have been a problem and I would not be surprised to see the Colts play this game relatively conservatively with a big lead. As a result, expect a heavy dose of Taylor and the running game.

Jaguars vs. Colts Betting Trends

  • The Jaguars are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games
  • The Jaguars are 0-10 SU in the last 10 games
  • The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games against AFC opponents
  • The Jaguars have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 6 games against AFC South opponents
  • The Jaguars are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 games against the Colts
  • The Colts have hit the “over” in 8 of the last 11 games
  • The Colts have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games against the Jaguars
  • The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • The Colts are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games against AFC South opponents

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I would stay away from the 14 point betting line and put my focus on the under 50 point total. I expect Jacksonville’s offense to have trouble moving the football and I don’t expect Indianapolis will push the issue with the lead. Expect a heavy dose of the Colts running attack and a conservative game pace. Take the under 50! Bet your Week 17 NFL picks and ALL your sports bets every day at -105 instead of the more expensive -110 option that you’re laying! Taking 5 minutes and making the switch to reduced juice sports betting will save you hundreds of dollars per year! Click here to sign up at BetAnySports! Home of -105 sides and totals!