Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick

by | Sep 28, 2021 | nfl

Washington Football Team (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

NFL Football Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday October 3rd, 2021. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Point Spread: WAS -2/ATL +2 (BetNow - HUGE 100% bonus up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS!)

Over/Under Total: 49

Despite two awful performances in the opening two weeks of the season, the Atlanta Falcons found a way to capture a victory against the Giants in the Meadowlands last week thanks to a walk-off 40-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo. While Atlanta did not exactly provide a promising performance with just 296 total yards of offense and mistakes on the defensive side of the football, the Falcons fought back from a 7 point deficit in the 4th quarter to earn Head Coach Arthur Smith’s first victory. Now, the Falcons will have a chance to return home in another winnable situation against a Washington Football Team that continues to underperform.

Going into the season, Washington received serious credibility as a potential playoff team. There was major confidence in the defense, and many thought Washington would consistently produce victories thanks to an easy schedule. Through two games, Washington suffered a mild upset at the hands of the Chargers, barely escaped the Giants, and then were completely blown away last week in Buffalo 43-21. The defense has played poorly, and the offense continues to have the same ole quarterback issues that have been around the organization for years. As a result, the expectations have quickly turned south which is seen in this week’s betting line as Washington is just two-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the NFC.

Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Last week, I labeled the Falcons among the worst teams in the NFL, and I stand by that statement despite the fact the Falcons found a way to cover against the hapless Giants. Looking back, I feared that Matt Ryan may find time to throw the ball due to the Giants’ helpless pass rush, which resulted in a low-scoring affair. Going into this Sunday’s game against Washington, I don’t believe this will be a favorable match-up for the Falcons offensive front. Granted, Washington is not exactly living up to their defensive expectations, but they still have a strong pass rush that will exploit Atlanta’s weakness on offense.

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The problem for Washington is that they cannot produce any consistent offense. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went down in the opener with a hip injury, and backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke has not looked very good either. Personally, I thought Washington would ride running back Antonio Gibson heavily this season, but Gibson has been mainly a receiving threat out of the backfield. If Washington continues their current game script, the only bright spot in this match-up points to WR Terry McLaurin. McLaurin owns a massive share of the Washington passing attack and has brought in 19 receptions for 224 yards with a touchdown. Against Atlanta’s secondary, McLaurin has eruption potential, especially if they can get better play from Heinicke.

Washington has the greater upside to cover the measly two-point spread this weekend, but I’m not exactly overconfident in Heinicke’s ability to avoid turnovers. The Falcons are averaging just 16 points per game on the season and will obviously need to get some help to win this game. If you look at paper stats, Washington has produced scoring totals of 16, 30, and 21. In both of the last two games, Washington was forced into a fast-game script due to fast starts by their opponents. I don’t expect that to happen this week, and I think game-script will mirror the Atlanta-New York match-up from week 3. If Washington’s defense shows up, it will make things even tougher on Atlanta. Either way, all signs point to the under 49 as the best play in this game.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like Washington to cover here, given I think this is an excellent match-up for their defense. However, I personally believe the “under” is the most reliable pick in this game. Both offenses are going to struggle all season, and there is no reason to expect anything different in this match-up. Take the under 49!

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