Washington Redskins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: 4:25 PM ET, September 30, 2012
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV: FOX
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Wash +3/TB -3
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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Both the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost their last game and each is sitting at 1-2 on the season. The Skins got another solid game from Robert Griffin III. But can Washington play any pass defense? I watched their loss to the Bengals in their last game and while they were decent in every other aspect of the game their pass D was horrid and they were torched through the air. At least the Bucs only rank 30th in the league in passing yards per game, so the Skins have that going for them.
Last week the Redskins were at home and lost a 38-31 barnburner to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Bucs were on the road and lost to the Dallas Cowboys 16-10.
RG3 came alive in the 2nd half of the loss to the Bengals and almost came through late in the game, but was sacked with only seconds remaining and that, pretty much, iced the game. He will have another good game, at least passing the ball, since the Bucs rank dead last in the league in pass defense.
Griffin and RB Alfred Morris combined for 163 rushing yards last week, but they have a tall task this week facing the Bucs’ run defense, which is the top ranked unit in the league. However, I see the Redskins having a decent rushing game since the Bucs have not faced a team with a great rushing offense. Mike Shanahan will look to establish the run early and Washington will do just that.
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Josh Freeman really struggled facing Dallas, but the Cowboys have a legit pass defense while the Redskins do not. I came close to throwing something at the TV watching the Skins, my Skins, giving up so many big plays last week. Freeman will not have a huge game, but he will make some plays with his arm since the Washington secondary has really struggled this season. However, the Skins pass rush played decent against Cincinnati, but Andy Dalton made some plays with his legs to avoid the pass rush, which Freeman will not be able to do.
While the Skins played poor pass defense last week they played good run defense and Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin, who is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, will not have a big game. Washington shut down Cincy’s BenJarvus Green-Ellis and they will do the same with Martin.
Tampa Bay has a mediocre pass rush with 7 sacks on the season and that is a concern for RG3, who was sacked 6 times against the Bengals. The Redskins have issues on their line and I see them struggling again so RG3 will have to take a page from Dalton last week and avoid the pass rush with his legs. Washington LT Trent Williams is questionable for this game with an injury.
Bucs’ DL Michael Bennett had a great game last week and I think he will do so in this game. He has 3 sacks on the season and will add to that total in this game.
The Skins are only 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games and in their last 5 games on the road they have an Over record of 3-1-1. The Bucs have not been a good team to bet on when they are at home, as they are only 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both of these teams are fairly inconsistent. I’d be lying if I said I could confidently pick a winner against this spread. If forced to make a pick, I’d side with TB. RG3 is still a rookie and vulnerable.
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