Burnley vs. Manchester City Picks 6/22/20

by | Jun 21, 2020 | soccer

Burnley (11-12-6, 39 points, 11th place) vs. Manchester City (19-7-3, 60 points, 2nd place)
When: Monday, June 22, at 3 p.m.
Where: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, United Kingdom

Point Spread: Burnley +2/Manchester City -2
Moneyline: Burnley +1400/Manchester City -667/Draw +800
Total: Over 3.5 (-134)/Under 3.5 (-106)
Odds available at (bet365)

Last Time Out:

Burnley drew 1-1 with Tottenham on March 7; Manchester City routed Arsenal 3-0 on June 17.

Previous meeting:

Manchester City hammered Burnley 4-1 on December 3 at Turf Moor.

About the Matchup:

It took Manchester City a half to get its legs under it, but the Sky Blues were firing on all cylinders once they got going, cruising to a 3-0 win at home over Arsenal. Now that they’ve had a game back, they’ve got to be considered heavy favorites to get a result against a middling Burnley side that hasn’t played since March. The only question with City is motivation, but Pep Guardiola’s crew answered those questions pretty emphatically with how well they broke down what had been an in-form Arsenal side.

Burnley had been fairly in-form itself before the pause, as the Clarets have avoided defeat in seven of their past eight matches, a streak that includes wins over Leicester City and Manchester United. However, does a squad that only averages just over a goal per game really have enough firepower to hang with the likes of Manchester City — especially after City just played while Burnley was sitting at home?

Scouting Burnley:

It’s been quite a while since Burnley has taken a loss in the Premier League. The last time the Clarets didn’t get points out of a match came on January 11 in a 3-0 loss to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Since then, the only slip came in the FA Cup against Norwich City, as Burnley has frustrated opponents with solid play at the backline. Of Burnley’s last seven Premier League matches, four have seen the opposition fail to find the net and none of the three that scored managed more than a single goal. The Clarets have had no choice, because their two top scorers, Chris Wood (11 goals) and Ashley Barnes (6 goals), will be out of action on Monday. Of the players who will be available for Sean Dyche’s selection, Jay Rodriguez’s five goals are the best, and the rest of the team has 11 goals combined on the year. In short, this is a squad that’s going to have to keep this a low-scoring match if it wants to get anything out of it.

Scouting Manchester City:

There’s just no answer for the likes of Raheem Sterling and Kevin de Bruyne, and that’s not even counting Sergio Aguero, who didn’t score against Arsenal but leads Manchester City on the year with 16 goals. When City is on, as it appears to be right now, only Liverpool is capable of stopping them.

The biggest question with City was their motivation, as City was ruled ineligible for European competition for the next two years because of financial fair play violations, meaning that it essentially has nothing to play for. But that seems to have been a motivating factor that’s brought the Sky Blues closer together, as they seem to be in a mood to take out their frustration on the rest of the Premier League. If City carries that chip on their shoulder into this match, Burnley is in for a long day.

Dan’s Best Bets:

Trips to the Etihad haven’t gone well for Burnley. Since getting promoted back to the Premier League in 2016, the Clarets have made three trips to the blue side of Manchester and been outscored 10-1, including a 5-0 thrashing last season.

As such, there’s not much in the way of plus money to be had in this match. Given that seven consecutive Manchester City matches have ended with one team getting shut out, the safest bet on the board is a “No” on both sides to score, but even that requires some juice at -134. You can bet City to win to nil, but you’re still going to pay some small juice there at -110. Instead, given that Burnley seem entirely incapable of hitting back and City found their legs in a match already, I’d take City to cover the two-goal spread. By giving the two goals, you’ll get City at even money, and that’s actually a solid bet with Burnley down two scorers. If you’re feeling daring, you can even give a third goal and get City at +220. If you really want to take a gamble, here’s a bet that’s worth taking a chance on: a red card. Five of City’s last ten matches have seen a player sent off, and Burnley is one of the more physical teams in the Premier League. At +450, this is absolutely worth taking a flier on. So is a penalty being awarded at +240, as Burnley have conceded a penalty in one of every six matches and is likely to spend the entire game a step behind the Manchester City attack.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

I can’t really see this match being anything but a comfortable rout for City. After the way the Sky Blues played against Arsenal, it seems that they’re on track to finish the year strong and make Liverpool earn the title. As such, I think they’re going to go for a big number, and I think they’re going to get it. I’m going to take City to cruise to a 4-0 victory.

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