England vs. Scotland and Pick to Win
Date: Saturday, June 10th 2016
Where: World Cup Qualifiers Europe
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds:England 8/11, Scotland 5/1, Draw 5/2
Moneyline: England -130, Scotland +500, Draw +250
Over/Under Best Market: NO SUGGESTED MARKET
England is a club that has been prone to laying an egg and busting the bankrolls of punters, given the fact they are one of the name brand clubs in all of the World Cup despite having few results to back its prestige recently. In this intra-UK clash between two bitter rivals, Scotland (a team not known for supremacy on the pitch) will look to come out and play for pride against their Southern foes.
We are not particularly keen on the Scots be that this a team that often procures morose results in any tournament of consequence. However, the Scottish have won twice in their previous six fixtures, most recently against Slovenia. Nevertheless, for the most part the Scots have taken advantage of weaker competition. They own a draw against Canada in a friendly and were ransacked by this same English side, 3-0, just a short time ago.
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England of course has the likes of Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane at their disposal. For those who are unfamiliar with the duo or simply need a reminder of their accolades, Vardy led Leicester City in the English Premier League to an unprecedented title run in 2015 and he broke all kinds of records while doing so. Kane has been instrumental in powering Tottenham to once again finish as the runner-up in 2016. With these achievements to bolster some of the premier players in the EPL on the English side, the price here on the English is astoundingly friendly which means potentially that takers are being set up for a terrible let-down.
The Scottish offer a false sense of value despite what may be conceived as affable odds. In spite of our position on laying chalk, there is likely an absence of value of playing on either side in this contest. The Scottish gave up three goals to England most recently and also gave up the same three goals against another emerging European contender, Slovakia when they lost 3-0. Regardless of how prone England is to being overvalued, the Scottish do not have any results that suggest they will be competitive in this one other than by sheer will and determination. This contest is the highlighted affair of this weekend of qualification, so undoubtedly the books will look to be sharp in this one and thus the price of 5/1 reflects the likelihood that Scotland will not have a chance to win this contest be that the price is so good.
With England coming in with continued heightened optimism compared to recent years, the Three Lions will certainly look to make a splash in this fixture and this is the opportunity for them to grab a quick three points and build momentum in their qualification efforts. The English seem to be more battle tested as they have locked horns with Spain and Germany recently, going 0-1-1 in those respective contests. With this narrative, they have gathered a lot of fanfare. However we will not side with the public and take a favorite with this kind of lumber, even if perhaps the situation dictates such a move. The bottom line is this, we dont know what two teams will be taking the pitch in this qualification effort. In many cases, teams chase points more than wins just to get into the World Cup as opposed to making any kind of exclamation risking their campaign. Given the fact the minority of the money is on the draw and there is a solid purse in what has a decent chance to emerge, we will go ahead and risk a unit to make 2.5 back on such an event. For Over/Under markets, given the fact both teams have unpredictable offensive production, we will suggest staying clear of the Over/Under in this situation and focusing solely on the result potentially being fostered here.
England Recent Form
W Lithuania 2-0
L Germany 0-1
D Spain 2-2
W Scotland 3-0
D Slovenia 0-0
Scotland Recent Form
W Slovenia 1-0
D Canada 1-1
L England 0-3
L Slovakia 0-3
D Lithuania 1-1
Keith’s Prediction for the Game: Draw +250