Everton vs. Liverpool and Pick to Win
Date:Friday, January 5th, 2018
Where: FA Cup Round 3 Anfield, Liverpool, UK
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Everton 37/5, Liverpool 2/5, Draw 19/5
Moneyline: Everton +740, Liverpool -250, Draw +380
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 3.5 – 2/1 (+100)
The Merseyside Derby is also known as The Friendly Derby as it is a rivalry game where those in the Greater Liverpool Area shake hands before and after the fixture. This is a venue that is normally one with high stakes on the table. Whilst that may not currently be the case in the English Premier League, it is assuredly the way of things here in the FA Cup Round 3. For those that are unfamiliar with the FA Cup it is essentially the ultimate domestic competition for all clubs in England. Known as the Football Association, every team from all administrative levels is involved in the contest. Typically, a Premiership side comes out on top and thus it is rare for two EPL sides (rivals, no less) to meet this early. Nevertheless, it is of importance to the Toffees. Liverpool is currently in the fold when it comes to Champions League play and also the English Premier League. The Reds hold a four point lead over Tottenham and the fourth position in the Premiership table. This is vital for the organization be that they are looking to go back to Europe yet again in 2018. Everton sits 11 points behind sixth place Arsenal for Europa qualification so chances are the FA Cup is Evertons best bet at making a run at greatness. For Liverpool, they have bigger fish to fry.
Everton has hit a nasty bump in the road. The Toffees have lost their last two fixtures and been outscored the opposition 4-1 in doing so. The results were fostered against the likes of Manchester United and Bournemouth. Previous to this, the Evertonians had drawn two contests in a row. For Reds supporters, they have to be foaming at the mouth with the play of the Reds. Anchored by a scorching attack of Coutinho and Selah, goals come easy to this bunch.
The Reds are 4-0-2 in their previous six fixtures. Most recently, the Reds own a 2-1 victory over a much-improved and better than advertised Burnley side. This result came as a follow up to a 2-1 victory over Leicester City. The tide for this team has changed dramatically from an outfit with some lackluster performances compared to one that is now firing on all cylinders. The Reds have scored 16 goals in their previous five contests. Production of this caliber is unrivaled and it is not hard to imagine that they cannot duplicate this success with a blueprint to exploit against Everton. In their most recent excursion against Liverpools arch rival Manchester United, the Everton defense was exploited by the speed of Jesse Lingard. Liverpool will undoubtedly look to implement a similar strategy with the weapons they have.
However as we have championed previously, laying juice is always a dangerous move. This is especially true at the price asked here. Given the fact this one is at Anfield, Liverpool is expected to win as they are known for a distinct home pitch advantage. However, rivalry games in lower competitions such as this one can procure the unexpected. Furthermore, we saw the Toffees priced more expensively compared to the meeting last month. Last month, Toffee was taking back 11/1 to odds and they continued on to produce a 1-1 draw. Now, the return is 40% slimmer which means the market is adept to the possibilities that surround this contest. The value is with Liverpool in terms of pricing but the asking rate is detrimental to the bankroll so we will never promote laying 500 to make 200. Given the nature of FA Cup competition, draws are beneficial to the visitor be that the replay is played on their home pitch. This plays perfectly into Evertons tool box. Given the potency of Liverpools offensive operations, it is not absurd to assume that they break the two or three-goal plane here. In order for Everton to get the draw they would have to match so therefore the Over 3.5 at +200 (2/1) is our recommendation. If both wagers come in, we snag 5.8 units.
Everton Recent Form
L Manchester United 0-2
L Bournemouth 1-2
D West Bromwich Albion 0-0
D Chelsea 1-1
W Swansea City 3-1
Liverpool Recent Form
W Burnley 2-1
W Leicester City 2-1
W Swansea City 5-0
D Arsenal 3-3
W Bournemouth 4-0
Keith’s Prediction for the Game: DRAW +380 (19/5) and OVER 3.5 +200 (2/1)
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