Holland vs. Mexico – World Cup Match Preview and Prediction to Win – 12 PM EST Sunday June 29, 2014 Estadio Castelo, Fortaleza, Brazil
By Jason Green, World Cup Soccer Handicapper, Predictem.com
Match Odds: Holland 2.10 / Mexico 3.80 / Draw 3.50
Moneyline: Holland +110 / Mexico +280 / Draw +250
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
Mexico has been very impressive so far in the World Cup and they narrowly missed out on winning their group with Brazil just losing out to the hosts on goal differential. They now face a great attack in Holland, who won their respective group and scored 10 goals in the 3 group matches.
Mexico comes into this match as the betting underdog, but they have already played Brazil to a 0-0 draw and their defense has been superb.
Goalie Guillermo Ochoa has been fantastic so far for Mexico and he and the defense have a tall task in this match. Ochoa has been a rock in the goal and was awesome on the scoreless draw facing Brazil, but can he keep Robin van Persie, who sat out the last group match with a red card, and Arjen Robben from finding the back of the net? This is a big question since both of these star strikers have 3 goals apiece in World Cup play.
Mexico’s defense was the reason then took 4 points in their first 2 group matches, but their offense came alive in their 3-1 win over Croatia in their last match.
Striker Oribe Peralta and MF Giovani dos Santos are the 2 main guys the Dutch defense has to key on in this match. The defense of Holland has been decent so far in the tournament and while they held Chile without a goal for that their last match that area of the pitch is still a concern.
Mexico will play a defensive match, but like facing Brazil they will not just drop back to protect the goal. They will attack when given the chance and with the Dutch pressing forward the whole match Mexico really has to take advantage of the counter-attack.
While Holland won all of their group matches they have made their mistakes. This is especially the case in the Australia match, where they had to come from behind to win, and in the Chile match GK Jasper Cillessen made a big one that should have been a penalty. They cannot make mistakes facing a Mexico squad that is technically sound and is playing with a ton of confidence.
Obviously midfield play will be key in this match and while Mexico does not have a great one they have been playing well, especially on defense. That will be important facing the Dutch and the attacking MF duo of Wesley Sneijder and Nigel de Jong.
Mexico must not get dominated in the time of possession and they really have to disrupt the passing in the midfield and limit the Dutch scoring chances from that area of the field. Mexico has the speed to deal with Holland and they have to mark the Dutch players up front when they are on the attack.
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One of the reasons Mexico has been so impressive is they have been able to get their opponents to not play to their strength. They will have to do that against Dutch, which means taking them out of their attacking mode and keep them on their heels on defense.
Holland Recent Form
5/31/2014 Netherlands 1 Ghana 0 (Friendly)
6/4/2014 Netherlands 2 Wales 0 (Friendly)
6/13/214 Spain 1 Netherlands 5 (World Cup)
6/18/2104 Australia 2 Netherlands 3 (World Cup)
6/23/2014 Netherlands 2 Chile 0 (World Cup)
Mexico Recent Form
6/3/2014 Mexico 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (Friendly)
6/6/2014 Mexico 0 Portugal 1 (Friendly)
6/13/2014 Mexico 1 Cameroon 0 (World Cup)
6/17/2104 Brazil 0 Mexico 0 (World Cup)
6/23/2014 Croatia 1 Mexico 3 (World Cup)
Jason’s Prediction to Win: This is a tough one to call since each team comes into this match with a full head of steam. Can Guillermo Ochoa have another stellar match in goal? I think he will play well, but not so good to keep the Dutch from scoring. Van Persie and company are too much offense for the Mexico defense and they will win this round of 16 match and head to the quarterfinals for the 2nd straight World Cup. Find the absolute best betting odds for this match and all World Cup betting opportunities at the web’s best bookmaker: 5Dimes.