Oklahoma City Thunder (45-10 SU, 33-19 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (31-26 SU, 24-32 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 23rd, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: OKC -9.5/Min +9.5

Total: 229

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -385/+305

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Nikola Topić (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

Timberwolves

• Julius Randle (Out) Adductor
• Rudy Gobert (Out) Back
• Donte DiVincenzo (Out) Toe

At 9:30 ET, the Timberwolves (-385) will host the Thunder (+305) in a divisional matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 9.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 229. The Thunder are 45-10 and sit atop the Western Conference, while the Timberwolves are 31-26 and in 7th place.

This game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

The Thunder improved to 45-10 this season with a 130-107 win over the Jazz on Friday. Oklahoma City, favored by 15.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 237 points went just over the 233-point line.

Oklahoma City took control early, outscoring Utah 39-25 in the 2nd quarter. The Jazz made a push in the 3rd, winning the quarter 37-31, but the Thunder’s 99-84 lead heading into the 4th was too much for Utah to overcome, as Oklahoma City closed out the game by winning the final quarter 31-23.

Minnesota fell to 31-26 on the season after a 121-115 road loss to the Rockets on Friday. The Timberwolves entered the game as +4 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 236 points exceeded the O/U line of 222.5 by 13.5 points.

After a rough start, allowing 48 points in the 1st quarter, Minnesota tightened up defensively in the 2nd, holding Houston to 20 points while scoring 29. However, the Rockets edged them out in both the 3rd (30-26) and 4th (23-22) quarters to seal the win.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Thunder have averaged 109 points per game compared to 106 for Minnesota. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City and Minnesota averaged a combined 215 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In their 130-107 win over the Jazz, the Thunder connected on 19 threes, shooting 44.2% from deep. Overall, they shot 47.4% from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 21 points and eight assists, while Chet Holmgren added 20 points. Jalen Williams contributed 18 points, hitting four threes at 57.1%.

The Thunder’s defense held the Jazz to 107 points on Friday, with strong performances in the 1st and 4th quarters, where they allowed just 22 and 23 points, respectively. Oklahoma City gave up 37 points in the 3rd quarter but still managed to come out on top. Overall, the Thunder held the Jazz to 45% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder allowed 15 made threes on 36% shooting. They also sent the Jazz to the free-throw line 18 times, where Utah made 10. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 10 steals and 10 blocks in the game.

Anthony Edwards poured in 37 points, including 15 in the 1st quarter, but shot just 40.6% from the field and 28.6% from three in the Timberwolves’ 121-115 loss to the Rockets. Minnesota struggled from deep as a team, hitting only 11 threes at a 28.9% clip.

Naz Reid contributed 22 points and eight rebounds, while Jaden McDaniels added 21 points, scoring 7 in the 4th quarter. The Timberwolves shot 44.6% overall, with Edwards adding 10 points in the 2nd quarter and another 9 in the 3rd.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 2nd and 4th quarters, the Timberwolves couldn’t overcome a rough 1st quarter, where they gave up 48 points, leading to a 121-115 loss to the Rockets. Overall, Minnesota allowed Houston to shoot 50% from the field.

The Timberwolves struggled to defend the three-point line, as the Rockets hit 13 threes at a 50% clip. Minnesota also sent Houston to the free-throw line 32 times, where they converted 24 attempts. Defensively, the Timberwolves recorded 10 steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 3-2 while averaging 116 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 119 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Minnesota posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-3-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

If the Wolves are going to even have a chance in this one, Anthony Edwards is going to put the team on his back. Minnesota is dealing with injuries to Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert, and this is going to make it tough for them to even be competitive. Don’t get scared off by this big number, I’m taking OKC -9.5.