Quick Recap:
• Record: 7-3
• Units: +7.6
• Best Win: Under 8 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 9 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen closed May 23, 2026 at +7.6 units on a 7-3 graded card — a productive Saturday built largely on totals discipline. Seven of the ten graded plays were totals, and six of those seven cashed. The two money-line plays split, with the Astros delivering and the White Sox collapsing. The one totals miss — the Cardinals-Reds Over — was the most damaging single loss of the night at 2.10 units risked. But the card’s structure held up: consistent 2-unit win targets across the board meant the wins stacked efficiently, and no single loss was catastrophic enough to derail the session.
Athletics at Padres
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
A textbook under result. Lucas Giolito and four Padres relievers combined on a five-hitter, and the Athletics were blanked 2-0 despite J.T. Ginn issuing six early walks. Ginn’s command issues loaded the bases repeatedly but San Diego couldn’t capitalize beyond two runs — Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ty France each drove in one. The final total of two runs was well inside the number. After the prior game in this series went 10 combined runs (Padres 7, Athletics 3), the model went back to the under at a tighter number and got a cleaner result. A clean win from the jump.
Sox at Giants
Pick: Chicago White Sox ML | Result: Lost (-1.89u)
The White Sox had beaten San Francisco 9-4 the day before, which gave the fade-the-Giants angle some surface logic. It didn’t hold. Harrison Bader hit a grand slam — his second in six days — and the Giants erupted for a 10-3 win, ending a four-game skid in emphatic fashion. Casey Schmitt homered and drove in three, Willy Adames went deep, and San Francisco scored nine runs across the fourth and fifth innings. The White Sox had no answer once the Giants’ offense woke up. The prior-day blowout win by Chicago made this a reasonable spot, but the Giants’ offensive outburst made it a missed read.
Cardinals at Reds
Pick: Over 9.5 | Result: Lost (-2.10u)
This was the costliest loss of the night. The Cardinals-Reds over at 9.5 needed run production from both sides, but Andre Pallante delivered a dominant six-inning, one-run outing — retiring his last 13 batters — and Cincinnati managed just one run. St. Louis scored eight, but almost entirely in chunks: Jordan Walker’s two-run homer, Bryan Torres’ two-run shot in his MLB debut, and a two-run ninth. The Reds’ offense never showed up, finishing with a single run on two hits. The combined total of nine fell a half-run short. A missed read — the Reds’ side of the over premise simply didn’t materialize.
Astros at Cubs
Pick: Houston Astros ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Jensen went back to the Astros for the second straight game in this series after backing them in game one, and the play delivered again. Kai-Wei Teng was sharp over six innings, allowing just two hits with six strikeouts, and Christian Walker did the heavy lifting offensively — homering twice and driving in all three Houston runs. The Cubs’ seven-game losing streak, their longest in four years, continued without much resistance. A 3-0 final, a clean win, and a well-placed confidence play that paid off.
Pirates at Jays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Paul Skenes had a rough outing by his standards — a career-high nine hits allowed in five-plus innings — but the Blue Jays still only put up five runs, and Pittsburgh managed just two. The 5-2 final came in comfortably under the 7.5 number. George Springer’s leadoff homer set the tone, and Toronto added three more in the sixth, but neither bullpen allowed things to escalate. After a push on the Under 8 in game one of this series, the model tightened the number and got the result. A clean win.
Guardians at Phillies
Pick: Under 7 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Zack Wheeler was the story here. After a nearly two-hour rain delay, he took the mound and delivered six shutout innings on two hits with six strikeouts, running his scoreless streak to 13 innings. Cleveland’s seven-game winning streak ended with a 3-0 loss, and the Guardians managed just two hits all game. Bryson Stott’s two-run single was the offensive highlight for Philadelphia. The Under 7 had been a winner the day before in this series as well, and Jensen went back to the same number with the same result. A clean, dominant win.
Twins at Sox
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Minnesota beat Boston 4-2 in a controlled game that never threatened the number. Taj Bradley returned from a chest muscle injury and allowed one run over five innings, and Trevor Larnach went 4-for-5 with two runs scored to pace the Twins offensively. The Red Sox scored twice — once in the fourth and once in the ninth — and never generated sustained pressure. The prior game in this series went 14 combined runs (Twins 8, Red Sox 6), but the model correctly identified the regression spot. A clean win.
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Max Meyer was dominant — seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, with Mark Vientos’ second-inning single the only blemish. Liam Hicks homered twice and Owen Caissie drove in two with a double for Miami, but the Mets’ offense was completely neutralized in a 4-1 final. The Marlins had allowed just one run in each of the first two games of this series, and the under trend continued. Jensen had backed the Marlins ML the day before in this series; going to the under in game two was a natural pivot. A clean win.
Nationals at Braves
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Jake Irvin held Atlanta hitless through five innings before leaving with an injury, and the Nationals completed a combined one-hitter in a 2-0 shutout. Michael Harris led off the seventh with the Braves’ only hit, and Atlanta stranded runners late after a disputed overturned call. Jorbit Vivas and Dylan Crews each homered for Washington’s only two runs. The prior game in this series went 9 combined (Nationals 4, Braves 5), and Jensen had lost an Under 8.5 in that one. Tightening to Under 9 here and getting a two-run total was a sharp bounce-back read. A clean win.
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Lost (-2.44u)
The Dodgers had lost to Milwaukee 5-1 the day before, and Jensen had cashed an Under 8.5 in that game. Going back to the under in game two looked reasonable, but Los Angeles had a completely different offensive night. Teoscar Hernández matched a career high with six RBI, including a home run, and the Dodgers scored in four separate innings — including four-run bursts in the fourth, eighth, and ninth — for an 11-3 final. The combined total of 14 obliterated the number. The Dodgers’ bullpen extended its scoreless streak to 36 innings, but the offense more than made up for any pitching concerns. The prior-game under win made this a logical continuation play; the Dodgers’ offensive eruption made it a variance loss rather than a fundamental misread of the matchup.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 0-1 on Saturday — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official graded record or unit total.
Mariners at Royals
The lean was on Seattle ML at -142, but the Mariners were shut out 5-0 by Kansas City. A complete offensive no-show from Seattle, and the Royals handled this one without much drama.
Missed Reads: White Sox ML (Giants’ offense erupted after prior-day blowout loss), Cardinals-Reds Over 9.5 (Reds’ offense never materialized, Pallante dominant)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Dodgers-Brewers Under 9 (logical continuation play; Hernández’s six-RBI night and a four-run ninth inflated the total beyond the number)
Clean Wins: Athletics-Padres Under 8, Astros ML, Pirates-Jays Under 7.5, Guardians-Phillies Under 7, Twins-Sox Under 8.5, Mets-Marlins Under 7.5, Nationals-Braves Under 9
A strong Saturday for Jensen’s card. Seven wins against three losses, and the unit math reflects the efficiency of the structure — consistent 2-unit win targets meant the wins compounded cleanly while the losses, though real, were contained. Six of seven totals plays cashed, and the one that didn’t (Cardinals-Reds) was the sharpest miss of the night, with the Reds’ offense failing to show up against Pallante. The Dodgers loss was the most expensive at 2.44 units risked, but it reads more like a variance result than a fundamental handicapping error. The Astros ML was the standout confidence play, delivering a second straight win in the Chicago series. Overall, a well-constructed card that executed where it needed to.
