Paul Skenes — 181 strikeouts in 155 innings — draws a Cubs projected lineup missing its 41-homer centerpiece, while Clay Holmes’ 2.83 ERA quietly suppresses a Pittsburgh offense posting a .732 team OPS. The projected run total lands at 9.3 against a posted number of 9.0, and the bullpen injury context on both sides tightens that gap further.
Paul Skenes vs. Clay Holmes: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Yesterday’s 12-2 Cubs blowout set off alarm bells for any Under ticket in this series. Sixteen hits. Runs in bunches. A Cubs lineup that looked unstoppable. But here’s the context the box score buries: that game ran against Pittsburgh opener Wilber Dotel, who has no business eating innings against a lineup of this caliber. Today is a different animal entirely. Paul Skenes takes the ball, and he is not Wilber Dotel.
On the other side, Clay Holmes — a converted reliever now 86 innings into his starting experiment — has posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP against a Pittsburgh offense that ranks among the more punchout-prone lineups in the National League. The numbers project this game at Cubs 4.7, Pirates 4.6 — a combined 9.3 runs, barely edging over the posted total of 9.0.
When the projection is that close to the number, the margin lives in the details: park factor, bullpen health, lineup gaps. And every one of those details nudges toward the Under.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 12, 2026 | 2:20 PM ET
- Venue: Wrigley Field | Park Factor: 1.02 (essentially neutral)
- TV: MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net
- Probable Starters: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Clay Holmes (CHC)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates +104 / Chicago Cubs -126
- Run Line: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+159) / Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-194)
- Total: 9.0 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Why This Number Is Close
The market has this right in structure, if not quite in value. A 9.0 total with Skenes on the mound is the book doing its job — pricing in ace-level run suppression without overcorrecting into sub-8.0 territory. The legitimate case for the Over starts with yesterday’s game and extends to the Cubs lineup, which scores 5.35 runs per game on the season. Even without Pete Crow-Armstrong in the projected order today, this is a lineup with real pop — Seiya Suzuki at .849 OPS, Tyrone Taylor hitting .282, Michael Conforto providing middle-of-the-order depth. You don’t just dismiss that firepower.
The concern is that the market may have already found the Under. When the projection lands at 9.3 and the total sits at 9.0, you’re paying -115 for a 0.3-run edge. That’s not a screaming value play — it’s a lean. What makes it worth acting on is the directional pressure from the factors the numbers can’t fully capture: six Cubs relievers on the IL, two Pirates relievers sidelined, and a bullpen landscape that practically forces both managers to lean on their starters deeper into games. Fewer bullpen arms means fewer runs surrendered in mop-up situations, not more.
The flip side is real — Wrigley’s 1.02 park factor is neutral, not suppressive, and if wind is blowing out, that calculation changes. But at current conditions, the number is close, and the edge tilts Under.
What Separates the Pitching
The gap between these two starters is meaningful, and it runs in Pittsburgh’s favor tonight — which is the core irony of betting the Under from the Cubs’ side of the ledger.
Paul Skenes is the centerpiece. His four-seam fastball sits at 96.8 mph, deployed 40.7% of the time, and holds hitters to a .280 xwOBA with a 26.9% whiff rate. But the pitch that really anchors an Under case is his changeup — 33.3% whiff rate, .256 xwOBA — which gives him a legitimate weapon against the right-handed hitters Chicago will run out in the middle of the order. His sweeper (.232 xwOBA, 26.2% whiff) and slider (32.4% whiff, .252 xwOBA) round out an arsenal that generates swing-and-miss at every velocity band. The result: 181 strikeouts in 155 innings, a 10.51 K/9. Against a Pittsburgh lineup, he’s pitching to a home ballpark. Against the Cubs, this stuff plays up.
Looking at Chicago’s projected order against Skenes, BJ Murray Jr. at cleanup is a significant soft spot — his season xwOBA of .136 is the lowest in the projected Cubs order, and his 31.2% strikeout rate makes him a near-automatic out against elite stuff like Skenes’s. Matt Shaw has gone 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in limited BvP exposure. Seiya Suzuki has managed a .278 average in 19 plate appearances against Skenes with one homer and eight punchouts — he’s the most credible threat, but even he’s working against elite stuff.
Clay Holmes operates differently. His sinker dominates usage at 49.1% (93.2 mph), inducing weak contact rather than swings and misses — a .368 xwOBA against that pitch is the concern, but his sweeper (.216 xwOBA, 24.0% whiff) and changeup (.216 xwOBA, 32.1% whiff) function as genuine put-away pitches. Against a Pittsburgh lineup posting a .732 team OPS, Holmes’s ground-ball profile and 2.83 ERA project well. The Pirates strikeout 1,380 times on the season — that’s right in Holmes’s wheelhouse.
Skenes is the better arm. Holmes is a legitimate suppressor. The pitching gap favors the Under from both ends of the matchup.
The Pushback
The honest version of this bet acknowledges real risk, and it starts with Pete Crow-Armstrong. He doesn’t appear in today’s projected order, but a 41-homer MVP-caliber threat sitting on the bench is still one managerial decision away from the lineup. His .465 xwOBA and 5.9% barrel rate mean he’s capable of the kind of damage that blows up an Under ticket with one swing — he can’t be modeled out of the equation entirely, even if he’s not penciled in at the moment.
Beyond Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs lineup that is projected today isn’t toothless. Gabriel Arias slots third and carries a .449 xwOBA with a 42.8% whiff rate — a boom-or-bust profile that could go either direction against Skenes’s arsenal. Rafael Flores Jr. sits fourth for Pittsburgh at a .451 xwOBA and 7.6% barrel rate, giving Holmes legitimate trouble in the middle of the order. And Wrigley is Wrigley — if the wind shifts, a neutral park becomes a launching pad in a hurry.
None of this flips the Under. But it keeps it honest.
The Bet
This isn’t a slam dunk, and I’m not going to pretend it is. Paying -115 for a 0.3-run edge against a neutral park with two functional offenses is a bet that needs everything to cooperate. What tips me over the line is the Skenes factor, the bullpen injury context on both sides, and a Cubs projected lineup that — without Crow-Armstrong — carries more holes than the season stats suggest. The pitching matchup is legitimately elite on one end and quietly effective on the other. That combination doesn’t guarantee an Under, but it gives it the right structure.
Bet: Under 9.0 (-115) | 2 Units | Confidence: Moderate
