Liberatore’s 5.36 ERA and .393 xwOBA-against on his fastball walk into a Pittsburgh lineup that set a club record for home runs — while Bachar counters with a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP going the other direction. The market has this priced at -121, and the pitching gap is considerably wider than that number reflects.
Matthew Liberatore vs. Lake Bachar: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
After last night’s 2-0 shutout — Jared Jones dominant for seven innings, Gregory Soto closing it out — the series shifts to a dramatically different pitching matchup today. Jones was lockdown. What takes the mound for St. Louis tonight is anything but. Matthew Liberatore carries a 5.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 149.1 innings into a park where Pittsburgh has set a club record for home runs this season. Against him, Pittsburgh counters with Lake Bachar, who owns a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 83.1 innings of work.
The market has this at Pittsburgh -121, Cardinals +100, with a total of 7.5. At first glance, the number feels reasonable given the tight total and the fact that a one-run game is entirely in play. But the pitching gap here is real, the lineup gap is real, and a -121 price on a team with a 66.7% projected win probability represents genuine value.
Pittsburgh is chasing its first winning season since 2018. At 80-77 with five games left, that’s not a motivational storyline — it’s an organizational threshold that filters into clubhouse energy. This team is locked in.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 — 6:40 PM ET
- Venue: PNC Park (Park Factor: 0.96 — slight run suppressor)
- TV: MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV
- Probable Starters: Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs. Lake Bachar (PIT)
- Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals +100 / Pittsburgh Pirates -121
- Run Line: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-204) / St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+167)
- Total: 7.5 (Over -112 / Under -107)
Why This Number Is Off
The market is doing its job. Liberatore has had enough two-start stretches where he flashed the slider (36.2% whiff rate) and buckled lineups, so bookmakers can’t simply price him as a punching bag. Meanwhile, Bachar’s 1-4 record suppresses his perceived value even though ERA and WHIP tell a much better story. The market is essentially saying: Liberatore is unreliable but not hopeless, Bachar is solid but unproven at scale, and the tight total keeps either team live. That’s the rational framing for -121.
But here’s the problem — the market is anchoring too heavily on Bachar’s record rather than his peripherals, and it’s not fully discounting Liberatore’s season-long vulnerability to right-handed power. Pittsburgh’s lineup has a .254 AVG, .405 SLG, and .736 OPS against a Cardinals offense sitting at .241/.380/.694. That gap isn’t enormous, but it’s consistent across every offensive metric. Add in the outfield injuries limiting St. Louis’s depth — Pereira and Baez both on the injured list — and you have a lineup already operating below full capacity facing one of the better statistical starters in tonight’s game.
The Cardinals are a live underdog at +100. But live doesn’t mean likely. The edge sits clearly with Pittsburgh at this price.
What Separates the Pitching
Head-to-head, this matchup isn’t close on paper. Bachar’s four-seam fastball runs at 94.4 mph and holds hitters to a .313 xwOBA with a 14.7% whiff rate — a legitimately effective primary pitch. His curveball is the real weapon: 86.4 mph, 36.4% whiff rate, and an xwOBA-against of just .207. His sweeper at 16% usage adds another dimension, generating 37.6% whiff with a .308 xwOBA. Bachar creates weak contact and misses bats — the WHIP of 1.14 reflects that quality.
Liberatore’s arsenal tells a different story. His slider has the whiff (36.2%) and curveball shows a .247 xwOBA-against, so the shape of his stuff isn’t without merit. The problem is his four-seam fastball: 94.3 mph but a .393 xwOBA-against and only 11.0% whiff. When hitters sit fastball against Liberatore, they do damage — and his changeup bleeds to a .420 xwOBA-against, which is a dangerous secondary offering against a lineup with Pittsburgh’s right-handed pop.
Look at the matchup data. Oneil Cruz carries an xwOBA of .499 overall, with a .503 mark against right-handed pitching — Liberatore’s handedness. Cruz has 19 plate appearances against Liberatore with a .235 average, but those small-sample results don’t override a career quality-of-contact profile this strong. Rafael Flores Jr. sits at .472 xwOBA overall with a .498 xwOBA vs. right-handers. Brandon Lowe, who just hit his 33rd homer of the season, checks in at .448 xwOBA against righties. Liberatore has surrendered 27 home runs in 149.1 innings — that’s a rate that puts a bulls-eye on his back every time Pittsburgh’s middle-of-the-order steps up.
Bachar — a right-hander — faces a Cardinals lineup that’s cold and short-handed. Their top-of-order xwOBA against right-handed pitching is uninspiring. Wetherholt’s vsRHP xwOBA sits at just .357, which is actually the best projection at the top of that order. Jordan Walker checks in at .409 vsRHP, and Iván Herrera drops to .337 against right-handers. Walker has just 4 plate appearances against Bachar (.500 avg), a sample too small to carry any predictive weight. Alec Burleson is the one Cardinals bat who grades better against righties — a .459 vsRHP xwOBA — but the surrounding lineup doesn’t give him much protection to work with.
The Pushback
I’m not going to pretend this is a layup. The concern is real: Liberatore has shown enough flashes — that slider, that curveball shape — to keep innings manageable when he’s locating. And Pittsburgh’s lineup, for all its right-handed pop, still has notable strikeout exposure. Cruz fans at a 33.3% clip. Lowe whiffs at 32.9%. If Liberatore can tunnel his breaking ball early and keep his fastball off the middle of the plate, St. Louis can steal innings.
The counter-argument also notes that Bachar is 1-4 on the season — wins aren’t everything, but run support and sequencing matter in close games, and there’s nothing in his track record that screams “automatic quality start.” His split-finger (35.2% whiff, .285 xwOBA-against) gives him a fifth weapon, but a Cardinals lineup featuring Leo Bernal (.457 xwOBA, 39.4% hard-hit rate), Alec Burleson (23 HR, 111 RBI), and Jordan Walker (28 HR) isn’t without teeth. This isn’t a lineup you dismiss even when it’s running cold.
Run Environment & Game Shape
PNC Park’s park factor of 0.96 is a mild run suppressor, and the total sitting at 7.5 tells you the market expects a reasonably contained game. With Bachar’s contact-management profile — three pitches generating 36%+ whiff rates — the Cardinals’ path to crooked numbers is narrow. Liberatore’s 5.36 ERA, by contrast, signals a starter who gives up runs in clusters when sequences break down.
The Cardinals’ offense — currently running cold and dealing with outfield injuries — has to do serious damage against a pitcher with three legitimate swing-and-miss offerings and a 1.14 WHIP. That’s a tall order for a lineup missing Pereira and Baez and relying on a top of the order that grades below .360 vsRHP across most of its lineup spots. Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t need to explode to win this game — it just needs Liberatore to be Liberatore, which he’s been at a 5.36 ERA clip all season long.
The shape of this game favors Pittsburgh keeping it close and pulling away late, which is exactly what this team has done during its five-game winning streak. The bullpen edges are roughly even, but if Bachar gives the Pirates five or six quality innings, their late-game relievers have been reliable enough to close it out.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline -121 for 2 units, moderate confidence. The pitching gap is real, the lineup matchup favors Pittsburgh, and the price leaves enough margin to justify the play. Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline.
