Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Division Series Game 1
Saturday, October 3, 2026
4:00 PM ET, Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are heavy home favorites at -217 in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves at Dodger Stadium. Atlanta sits at +177 on the moneyline. The total is 8 and the run line is Dodgers -1.5. My play is Dodgers -1.5 at -105 to -110.
The pitching matchup is lopsided. Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Los Angeles after the Dodgers acquired him from Detroit at midseason. He’s 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA overall and has gone 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts as a Dodger, with 70 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 62 innings. He’s struck out at least seven batters in 15 of his 26 starts. In October he’s been even better, with a 2.04 career postseason ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and a 56-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39⅔ innings.
Skubal also matches up well against this lineup. Atlanta posted a .696 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, about 5% below league average, and lost roughly 20 points of slugging compared to its numbers against righties.
Atlanta is stuck with a bullpen game. The Braves needed all three games to get past Philadelphia, winning Game 3 6-2 on Thursday night, and Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle are both unavailable for Game 1. Spencer Strider is out for the season and Bryce Elder is injured. That leaves left-hander Brent Suter as the most likely opener, followed by a string of relievers who just worked high-leverage innings in a three-game series, including the 10-inning loss in Game 2. The Dodgers have hit .279 with an .846 OPS and a 136 OPS+ against Suter, and a bullpen game means multiple Atlanta relievers facing this lineup more than once.
The Dodgers had the edge all season. Los Angeles won 100 games, took five of six from Atlanta during the regular season, and is the two-time defending World Series champion. They’ve also been resting since the end of the regular season with their rotation set, while Atlanta flew across the country after an elimination game.
The run line is the better bet than the moneyline at -217. Skubal working deep into the game against a bullpen game is the type of mismatch that produces multi-run wins. The risk is a close, low-scoring game where the Braves bullpen holds up and the Dodgers win by one, but with Atlanta’s pitching this thin, Los Angeles should have plenty of chances to pull away late.
Realistic outcomes: Dodgers 5, Braves 3 (Dodgers cover -1.5); Dodgers 6, Braves 4 (Dodgers cover); Dodgers 4, Braves 2 (Dodgers cover); or Dodgers 4, Braves 3 (1-run margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Los Angeles on the run line.
The Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-107)
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